Recent events around Crimea, which, depending on the point of view, are called either “annexation” or “reunification”, have raised hope for a speedy solution to some of the territorial problems that have been frozen for decades. The bloodless and very quick actions of the Russian army on the peninsula aroused joyful expectations among a large part of the population of the unrecognized republic, located between Moldova and Ukraine. The hope that Transnistria would soon become part of Russia seemed almost fulfilled.
Moldovan excesses
In 1992, the experience of resolving interethnic conflicts was poor. The Chechen war had just begun, Nagorno-Karabakh seemed something far away, the events in Sumgait seemed to be a product of some special Asian-exotic mentality, and NATO peacekeepers have not yet bombed Yugoslavia.
In the rapture of the sovereignty gained by the leaders of the Moldavian “Popular Front”, we overlooked the tendency toward discontent among residents of a significant part of the territory of their country. August 1989 was marked by the glee of local nationalists who won major victories in the Supreme Council of the MSSR: the adoption of the Moldavian language as the state (sole) and the repeal of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. There was also a transition to the Latin alphabet, emphasizing the complete “foreignness”. Somehow, in the heat of the parliamentary debate, they did not pay attention to the fact that other languages, which the population had successfully used so far, were oppressed.
First referendum
The entry of Transnistria into Russia was not planned at that time, even the most daring political science fiction dreamed of it. In order to draw attention to the region that does not create 40% of the country's GNP, in 1990 the Tiraspol leadership held a referendum, which was attended by 79% of voters who were dissatisfied with the policies of the nationally concerned parliament. The Transnistrian Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic became a fact, but there was no talk of separation from Moldova. Almost 96% of Transnistrians simply wanted to be sure that their rights would be guaranteed, if not by official Chisinau, then at least by the government of the Primorsky Soviet Socialist Republic. In addition, there was persistent talk about the upcoming reunification with Romania, and the inhabitants of the region wanted to secure the right to choose the country in which they were to live.
Another referendum
From a legal point of view, the collapse of the USSR was accompanied by numerous violations of international and Soviet laws, but no one paid attention to it then. Sovereignty was declared, and if the national flag was suddenly introduced into the armed forces of a union republic, and deputies began to sing a new anthem, then the matter was considered to be accomplished. So it was in Moldova, and not only in it. The parliament of the Gagauz autonomy did the same, but it provoked an instant charge of separatism, and clashes began, while costing "little blood." The unity of the country was supported by volunteers, in a foreign manner called "volunteers", from Moldova and Romania itself.
June 1990 Deputies of the Moldavian left bank and Bender vote for the preservation of the USSR. After the coup of 1991 , exactly 15 sovereign states arise in the vast expanses of the former Union. In autumn, the PMRSS becomes the PMR (Transdniestrian Moldavian Republic), that is, a country separate from Moldova. 98% of 78% of the competent population voted for it.
Story
There are several reasons why many in the future see Transnistria as part of Russia, and they are both historical and legal in nature. The most important of them is that the Supreme Council of the MSSR, having decided to secede from the USSR, terminated the only legitimate document according to which the former part of the Russian Empire was part of Moldova. Formally, Transnistria, even during the Romanian occupation during the Second World War, was not considered royal territory: it, along with the Odessa region and other South Ukrainian lands, was called Transnistria. The only reason that Tiraspol, Bender and Gagauzia became Moldavian was voluntarily annulled at the time of declaration of sovereignty.
The referendum was held again, its results revealed a complete reluctance of the population to join the Republic of Moldova and the desire to independently determine their future. But does this mean that Transnistria asks to join Russia? Maybe its citizens are so good?
War
The 1992 armed conflict frighteningly recalls today's anti-terrorist operation of the Ukrainian army. However, there is a difference. Moldova is a small country, much smaller than Ukraine, and therefore there were often cases when former neighbors, friends and even relatives who suddenly became enemies took up positions in hastily dug trenches. The population of Tiraspol, Bender and surrounding villages, for historical reasons, is multinational, used to live in harmony, but when President M. Snegur decided to “resolve” disputed issues by force, he quickly organized into the guard. The weapon was not a problem; it went to both warring parties from the warehouses of the 14th Russian army that were poorly guarded at the initial phase of the conflict. Everything was as it is now, and accusations against Moscow, and volunteers on both sides of the front line, and downed aircraft, and civilian casualties. It seems that history, even recent, does not teach anyone anything ...
In 2006, another referendum was held. The vast majority of citizens of the PMR (96.7%) expressed the hope that Transnistria would become part of Russia ...
The economic component of the issue
In general, after more than two decades, the Transnistrian macroeconomic indicators look no worse than the Moldovan ones. The society is characterized by the absence of any interethnic friction, which, of course, works for overall success, however, the practically gratuitous energy resources with which Russia supplies the unrecognized republic (that is, on credit, but without any hope of returning it) are much more important. There are problems, and they are connected, as in almost all post-Soviet countries, with the loss of traditional markets for products. There is no doubt that Transnistria as a part of Russia could find its niche - there are factories, enterprises of light industry, and agriculture, which flourished during the years of the USSR. But there are also factors that impede this scenario.
Obstacles
The main factor that determines the answer to the question of whether Transnistria will be part of Russia or not is that the state, de facto existing, is de jure not on the political map of the world. Unlike Abkhazia and South Ossetia, this country is still not recognized by any member of the international community, including the Russian Federation. There is reason to believe that this act, if it takes place, will entail yet another sanction and accusation of pursuing an aggressive policy.
The geographical position of the territory also matters. Since the political situation in Ukraine remains hostile, uncertain, it can be assumed that if Transnistria becomes part of Russia, this subject of the federation will be in full or partial blockade by its neighbors. Undecided how to react to this very likely unfriendly demarche from Moldova and Ukraine, the Kremlin will not take such an action.
The Russian economy, despite a fairly high degree of independence from foreign markets, like any other, is undergoing a global crisis. The task of the government is not simple: to maintain the achieved living standards (or even better - to raise them) in the face of a significant burden on the budget associated with an increase in government spending. Bringing Crimea to the all-Russian level will also cost a considerable amount.
In addition, the interests of other major global geopolitical “players” should be taken into account. The aggravation of the situation in Europe, and even the creation of hotbeds of tension of the prewar, and even more so the military level, will play into the hands of potential suppliers of hydrocarbons, a way that is even more expensive if traditional supply channels are closed. All these circumstances do not allow us to hope that Transnistria will become part of Russia in the near future.
What's next?
During the existence of the USSR (and in more distant historical periods), almost all of its republics have developed certain cultural and economic centers in which the Russian-speaking or ethnically Russian population predominates. These are the Ukrainian South-East, industrial regions of Kazakhstan and many other regions, where in Soviet times they sent specialists to raise entire economic sectors, or the national composition has been formed over the centuries. The wisdom of the leadership of the newly formed independent states can be judged by how carefully it treats people who sometimes spent their whole lives on strengthening the economy, honestly carrying out their work and achieving considerable success in it. The cries of the famous suitcase and train station indicate the absence of not only simple human decency, but also ordinary pragmatism. Unfortunately, the mistakes of governments blinded by a hypertrophied sense of national pride are repeated. Ultimately, the integrity of the country is in jeopardy. The fate of the breakaway fragments that have become the “secondary fission products” of a great country in the short term is difficult to predict. Many of them actually made their choice, the rest is a matter of time. Perhaps the moment will come when Transnistria will be part of Russia. 2014 is unlikely to be that date.