Any major supplier is interested in optimizing their sales volumes. To solve this problem, it is necessary to forecast the volumes of products shipped to customers and to carry out planning based on these values. Hydrocarbon trade is the most complex sales system; both the stability (what consumers are interested in) and the systematic way of making a profit depend on stream optimization. Recently, in connection with gas supplies to Europe and Ukraine, the term Take-or-Pay is often used in comments. What is it and why does the introduction of this principle displease some of Gazprom’s foreign partners?
Ukrainian contract of 2009
It was the conditions of the agreement concluded at the beginning of 2009 that led to the introduction of the mentioned principle as one of the three conditions for the settlement of an interstate economic dispute. In addition to Take-or-Pay, future relations included the liquidation of an intermediary company (RosUkrEnergo) and an increase in the price of goods sold. The contract is beneficial to the Russian side and infringes on the economic interests of Ukraine, but nevertheless it was signed. And if the price to this day seems to many to be “unfair”, “bonded”, despite the fact that the contract was endorsed by the high contracting parties voluntarily, then the “take or pay” condition cannot be attributed to some unusual conditions. According to him, Ukraine is guaranteed to receive a negotiated amount of gas. In case of shortage, she is obliged to pay a certain amount, less than the established maximum, but more than actually received. At the same time, such payment cannot be considered a fine. Why?
The advantages of the principle
The Take-or-Pay principle itself is not so bad for any two contracting parties. Ukrainian analysts, cursing Gazprom for the imperial position, usually forget to explain that the paid, but not selected amount of gas does not disappear, but proceeds to the next period, in which consumption growth is expected. Since hydrocarbon prices have a steady upward trend, it is okay to have a reserve of already paid blue fuel. This amount can be taken into account (with a minus sign) when drawing up the application for the next year, this makes it possible to more reliably calculate the size of future needs. The Take-or-Pay condition imposes obligations not only on the buyer, but also on the supplier, who, after the entry into force of the contract, can no longer refuse to ensure the declared volumes (of course, in case of timely payment).
As in Russia?
In favor of the take-or-pay principle, at least the fact that European countries importing gas from the Russian Federation also works this way (after our country joins the WTO) speaks in favor. Ukraine is not some special country, against the interests of which a special enslaving rule is used. Moreover, the same principle applies to large consumers within Russia. Small enterprises have difficulty connecting to gas pipelines, as the size of guaranteed withdrawn funds annually from the turnover is difficult to predict. In the case of a warm winter, the administration of such plants and factories lends a considerable amount to Gazprom, and not everyone benefits from it. If abnormal colds come, then the situation may turn out even worse, the declared volume of gas is simply not enough. In this regard, small and medium-sized entrepreneurs are closely monitoring the outcome of the economic dispute with Ukraine. If the Take-or-Pay regime is canceled, a legal precedent will arise , which will affect their relations with the state gas monopolist.
You need to pay ...
In addition to the important principle of planning the volumes sold and consumed, there are no other advantages to the “take or pay” principle, in general. If the country's macroeconomic indicators are good, external debt is small, and the balance of payments is positive, then it is acceptable not only for the seller, but also for the buyer. Another thing is work in the conditions of the global macro-crisis, when every penny (every billion euros) is in the account. And it becomes very difficult for a country that is waging war. It's not up to Take-or-Pay, when there is simply nothing to pay. The Americans came up with this principle, but they have another common expression: no money - no drink ("who does not pay, he does not drink"), written on the walls of many bars.