Today, in many media there is the word "recession." What it is? Specialists characterize this state of the economy as one of the phases of the economic cycle (a recession period, followed usually by a growth period). For the first time, this state of affairs manifested itself in the United States, during the Great Depression (early 30s of the last century). It provoked a panic at the stock exchanges, a collapse of quotations, the closure of enterprises, the migration of people from one state to another, etc. Since then, economic downturns have been repeated, both in different countries and in the global economy as a whole.
Definition
Recession. What does this mean today? The classic definition indicates that recessive factors, in general, are expressed in a fall in gross domestic product. It, in turn, is defined as the value of goods and services that are produced by resident enterprises of a given country for final use. A more detailed examination determines such factors as: the state and dynamics of development of the main industries, the level of export of products, the volume of securities issued by various issuers, the level of employment, etc.
Recession. What is it from the point of view of historical and perspective processes? It is estimated that this condition can occur when personal consumption standards are extremely high. The industry, in turn, focusing on them, lays in their projects increased demand, and banks provide loans for them. At the same time, there is a tendency towards a decrease in the real effectiveness of companies. The mass of the population has prosperity that they did not earn, but, as it were, got a loan at the expense of the future. Sooner or later, this “pyramid of expectations” begins to fall apart.
Is there a recession or not?
The recession in Russia (2013) did not occur according to formal signs, since the first calculation of GDP for the above year revealed an increase of 1.3%. But during this period, in the main economic areas (wholesale and retail trade, construction, freight transport, manufacturing and mining, mining and agriculture), a decrease in productivity was observed (taking into account seasonality, as well as adverse conditions prevailing for agriculture).
Recession. What does this mean for an ordinary citizen or entrepreneur? Such economic conditions almost always reduce consumer demand, the number of jobs decreases, inflation indicators increase. It becomes harder to take a loan or organize your own business. Partly, the general state of affairs in our country is due to the global crisis, because Russia is part of the system, and therefore, it is affected by declining demand from foreign consumers of products.
It will take time and new solutions
The growth of unemployment in the Russian Federation (up to one million officially registered people), a decrease in the growth rate of personal incomes (from 8.4% per year to 4.8 percent) - this is what a recession in the Russian economy in 2013 is. Experts believe that this condition is not acute, and crisis times for Russians will not come. However, it will be problematic to get out of the sluggish decline in economic indicators , and this process will take a sufficient amount of time.