Each person repeatedly in his professional activity or everyday life poses the question: “What consequences can a certain activity entail? Will this or that event take place? How to make a prediction of its onset? "Oddly enough, but the usual mathematical laws and rules can often help us in such matters. This article will examine what the laws are, what they are, how they can be used.
Forecasting as a result of regularity
The mere fact of a prediction or forecast is not a reason to believe that a certain individual has extrasensory abilities. What does it mean? Predicting a specific event can only be done using patterns. This is the basis of forecasting. Using the rest of the theory of probability, the laws of large numbers, we can make the forecast accuracy the most maximum. But without using patterns - this is impossible.
Types of patterns
In general, a pattern is a certain interconnection of certain phenomena or procedures that repeats from one cycle to the next cycle, with the help of which it is possible to establish stages and forms of development of the entire system of nature, society, and technology. Without these repetitions, the existence of just such a system would be impossible. Without regularities, the system will be not only different, but also unstable, transferring constant chaotic changes in all processes. There are two types of patterns: dynamic and statistical. A dynamic pattern is a similar causal relationship. In other words, this is a type of causal relationship, as well as constant communication, when specific indicators of the system in each case can determine the state of this system in the future. This pattern is inherent in all those phenomena that are completely controlled by physical, chemical, biological and mathematical laws.
Roughly speaking, a dynamic regularity makes it possible to determine certain regularities in the development of simple phenomena. Due to the fact that all simple phenomena obey the laws of physics, chemistry, thermodynamics, biology, under the same conditions, the same phenomenon will naturally be repeated.
What is a regularity in statics? This is such a pattern that manifests itself in a mass of homogeneous phenomena when summarizing the data of a statistical population and is based on the action of the law of large numbers. This is a type of causal connection in which it is impossible to say something specific about the state of the system in the future. We can only assume the share of probability with which one or another case of a pattern can occur.
This pattern is inherent in social phenomena. In this case, a large role is played by human actions. The state of an individual, his subsequent actions after a certain impact can not always be predicted. Man is not a machine, therefore, the pattern of determining human behavior is somewhat different from predicting the patterns of ordinary and simple phenomena.
Pattern and dynamics
To understand in more detail what a pattern is, you need to study the dynamics a bit. In general, the dynamics of social phenomena is the result of interactions of various causes and conditions of both a social and a natural determining nature. When they study some regularity, they also use the laws of dynamics and do the following:
- Characteristics that are inherent in the phenomenon at different times.
- Use of statistical observation systems.
- Finding a trend indicator (the main trend in the development of the system).
- Changes in system performance at micro levels (periodic fluctuations).
- Extrapolation and prediction
Extrapolation and study of patterns
No matter how terrible this concept may sound, in fact everything is extremely simple. This concept is also closely related to law. What is extrapolation? This is an analysis of the obtained laws of phenomena and their superposition on a boundary-admissible point of time in the future. This is forecasting, only in a more scientific language.
Extrapolation is impossible without the use of patterns. And regularities are not needed without their further extrapolation.