In recent years, many people have sought to find out what causes a crisis and what a recession is. This interest did not arise from scratch. The development of information technology and the advent of the Internet allow interested parties to be constantly in the know about the processes taking place in the stock and financial markets. Moreover, they have a real opportunity to engage in various kinds of speculation in the foreign exchange market. In open sources, you can find evidence that people working in this field have incomes that are much higher than those who are employed in the real sector of the economy. Such is the specificity of the modern world economy.
Answering the question of
what a recession is, you need to make a brief digression into history. In the first third of the last century, the United States experienced an
economic crisis. The volume of
production of commodity products initially slowed down, and then reached zero values. Specialists call this phenomenon a crisis of overproduction. Among the most advanced analysts there were those who calculated the cyclical nature of the crisis in a market economy. World-famous scholars who have received Nobel Prizes vied with each other to prove that crises can occur in 3-4 years, or in 7-11 years, or in 15-25. The most popular and demanded by the population cycle of 45-60 years. It was calculated by the famous Soviet economist and mathematician
Nikolai Kondratiev.
So what is a
recession? This is a decline in production. If within six months the growth of the gross domestic product, everyone knows it as GDP, is equal to zero, or has a negative value, then we can safely conclude that the recession has occurred. This phenomenon always follows a period of recovery and precedes a period of crisis and depression. It is in this state that the economies of developed countries are after the crisis that began in 2008. In this context, the forecast of Russia's economic development for the coming years looks very ambiguous.
According to the rules on the basis of which the modern economic mechanism is built, it is impossible to avoid crisis phenomena in the economy. The classics of liberal approaches do not want to agree with this and are trying in every possible way to use other words to characterize this phenomenon. Instead of crisis and depression, it is proposed to use the terms “temporary recession”, “slowdown” or “pullback”. But no matter how you put it, the meaning of these definitions, embodied in real life, is that they lead to a decline in production, a decrease
in population incomes, and an increase in unemployment. Under the current mechanism, Russia's economic forecast does not imply a positive development of the situation.
Concluding the conversation about what a recession is, it should be noted that the decline in production occurs for several reasons. The most unpleasant reason is a war or a major conflict, which can radically change the situation in the global economy. The second reason is political or psychological. When people in many countries refuse to buy British beef, this causes negative consequences for the country's economy as a whole. Another reason may be excessive state obligations to certain categories of citizens. They promised to increase pensions, but failed. So there was a pre-crisis situation.