In the vast expanses of the Soviet Union, the words “demography” and “statistics” have long been perceived as synonyms. This is probably why the joke about three types of lies (lies, heinous lies and statistics) could be heard about demographic research. Literally, Demography is translated from Greek as “nationality,” but the Latin word status (from which the word statistics is derived) is “state of affairs”. It is not difficult to notice that these are completely different words both in meaning and in origin. What can demographic research tell us?
The demographic aging of the planet's population
Practical demography studies the situation in the selected areas, analyzes directions and forming trends on a global scale and in individual states. Different social strata of the population and age groups are studied. Based on the research results, forecast indicators appear for 1, 5, 10, sometimes 50 years in advance, describing likely scenario situations in the future.
Forecasts of various statistical organizations indicate an inexorable increase in the number of people over 65 years of age all over the world. For better or worse, opinions are different. The possibility of such a process was launched by the revolution of the “culture of everyday life and production”: access to education, relative well-being, development of medicine, improvement of the sanitary-epidemiological situation, working conditions at enterprises. All of the above contributes to the lengthening of human life, which, in turn, is one of the main factors in the aging trend of the population in the world.
Main categories and indicators of population studies
Almost all studies go through the stages of data collection, their description and theoretical interpretation of the results. Demographic studies are no exception. The main source of data is the census, but microcensuses and sample studies are conducted to highlight certain social, economic, and political factors that influence the situation in the region. As a result of this, the studies describe the size of the population and its structure: age, gender, national, religious and linguistic, professional and educational. Attention is paid to the natural population growth and migration, the income level of certain groups and individuals. All descriptions are carried out in order to compile an accurate theory that takes into account the largest number of influence factors, based on which, in the future, hypotheses are put forward for the development and formation of society.
Demography, as a science, is conditionally divided into formal, analytical, historical, sociological, military.
- Formal demography studies the quantitative component of all processes and their impact on population growth or decline.
- Analytical - studies the interconnections and influence of laws, causes and effects of society in specific conditions. The study is carried out at the level of mathematical methods, as well as using modeling and forecasting. Analytical demography examines the influence of the socio-economic, political, cultural climate in the region on different age groups of the population. It is not surprising that demographers have been talking about the problem of population aging in connection with the current socio-economic situation for more than a dozen years.
- Historical demography studies a retrospective of social and other phenomena in connection with the growth or decline of the population in the studied regions. Based on the collected and processed studies for a rather long period (over decades), theoretical generalizations are put forward and established historical laws are formulated. Thanks to them, it became possible to predict the aging of the world's population.
- The mutual influence of demography and sociology is studied by social demography. It differs from the previous form by studying phenomena at the micro level (family, close relatives, personality). Explores social demography, social attitudes, norms, behavior, which affects the research methods: interviews, tests, polls, etc.
- Military demography studies various factors affecting the state of military affairs and the economy. This section includes the study of the possibilities of mobilizing the country's population during armed conflicts, possible losses among civilians in the form of victims and migration, and the consequences of military operations for the region. This section of demography is closely related to military science.
Population, reproduction and reproductive attitudes are the main categories studied by the science in question. The topic of population aging is raised in connection with the study of the gender and age composition of the region's inhabitants. In theory, it is customary to distinguish three types: primitive, stationary and regressive (in their pure form they are practically not found).
- The first type is characterized by high fertility and mortality rates. It can be observed in the tribes of Africa, where children are not registered until they reach the age of ten (due to high child mortality).
- The second type, as opposed to the first is observed with low fertility and mortality. This situation can be observed in developed countries and, according to experts, in a post-industrial society.
- The third, regressive type is characterized by high mortality and low birth rates (observed during hostilities in the country).
The term demographic aging is considered as the ratio of three age groups of residents of the region: people under 15 years of age, working age population, people after 60-65 years. The predominance of the last group over the first by 10-15% is called the demographic aging of the population. A model has been theoretically developed for the optimal composition of the population, where the young disabled population occupies 20%, the working people 65%, the disabled people of retirement age 15%. This scheme is considered ideal in connection with the distribution of the economic burden on the working population (based on 1000 workers 500 disabled). Therefore, other ratios are considered to create excess load, leading to the collapse of the country's economy.
Features of the demographic situation in Europe
Population aging in developed countries has been occurring over the past fifty years. Many factors influence this trend:
- improved health care;
- increase in life expectancy;
- fertility decline;
- economic and socio-political situation in the country.
A favorable situation has arisen for the emergence of the so-called silver economy. Its essence is to satisfy the needs of older people in services, goods and maintaining the quality of life through the structure and mechanisms of the economic model. One of the components of the Silver Economy is, in particular, inclusion - a term often used recently in the post-Soviet space, but ruthlessly taken out of context and transferred to a completely different part of the population.
In European countries, different methods and methods are used to relieve the burden from the pension fund:
- Naturally, the retirement age was raised (in the future, it is planned to bring the retirement age to 70);
- in most states, the issue of minimum length of service and the minimum number of contributions paid to the pension fund is considered;
- They try to relieve the burden on the state pension funds with the help of private savings deposits for pensioners, which has already allowed to release up to 2% of GDP according to some estimates (at present European countries spend about 15% of GDP on supporting pension funds);
- introduced a program of "active aging" in various fields, which is designed to help people stay longer in the labor market and retire later;
- some countries are testing part-time employment of retirees: people work on a flexible schedule and receive part-time salaries and partly retirements (surveys show that this form of work is attractive to 68% of older people in Europe).
It is worth noting that programs of active aging of the population are popular among people of advanced age and are implemented in almost all regions of Europe. The main problem of the countries of the European zone is not aging, but a decrease in the birth rate, which is supported by activities such as sexual education from kindergarten age, support and promotion of homosexuality, the famous philosophy of child-free, etc. However, all of the above is not considered as problematic phenomena with corresponding consequences.
Demographic dynamics in Russia
In Russia, population aging is forecasted by 2020, however, to date, the ratio of able-bodied citizens and dependent people is more than optimistic (under 15 years old - 15.2%, up to 65 years old - 71.8%, after 65 - 13%). An alarming signal can be an annual decrease in the birth rate and a high mortality rate (in quantitative ratio with newborns). The natural population growth has been negative for more than a year. One can say that the aging of the population in Russia is at the initial stage, but the speed of this process is predicted with a low degree of probability.
Demographic Situation in Southeast Asia
By 2030, a huge leap in aging of the population of Southeast Asian countries is predicted. Already today, the palm in this statistical scale belongs to Japan. China’s long-term policy of “one family, one child” also does not affect the age and gender composition of the nation in the best way. Recent concessions in the family policy of the Celestial Empire will not soon bear fruit. Today, there is a strong imbalance in the number of men and women (towards an increase in the number of men). This was preceded by a policy without the state pension system (a son should have ensured the old age of the parents, which led to a large number of abortions if the parents knew the gender of the unborn child (girl)).
The influence of political, economic changes on the demographic situation of the regions
The above examples serve as a vivid illustration of the influence of the political, economic, territorial situation on the demographic composition of the region’s population. The mechanical containment of population growth, as the practice of China shows, is not capable of leading society to prosperity and transition to a post-industrial society, but it creates problems that can take a decade to solve, and possibly require radical measures. At the same time, the “social licentiousness” of the developed countries of Europe leads the state to the same denominator, with the difference that the “young old people” of the European continent have great freedom in choosing the path of their life paths.
The impact on the composition of the population of the climate, natural and technological disasters, medical care
Against the background of a developed medical industry and scientific discoveries, the aging of the population in developed countries does not look like a fatal factor in the collapse of the economy. However, such “unplanned measures” as climate change, natural and man-made disasters always make their adjustments.
If we consider man-made disasters, then often they lead to climatic changes and natural disasters (hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, fires, abnormal heat, etc.). However, the “human factor” is leading. As an example of a man-made disaster caused by a natural cataclysm, one can cite the accident at the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant, the breakthrough of the Bantiao dam in 1975 (China). The accident on the platform Deepwater Horizon (Gulf of Mexico) has affected most of the world's population (although it is not currently possible to find out which factor was decisive human or natural).
All disasters “harvest” two crops instant and long-term. The immediate is expressed in economic damage, the victims of the cataclysm, but the long-term (sometimes exceeds the instant) is expressed in the social, economic, political (even religious) preferences of society. The consequences of Hurricane Katrina, the long-term “collection” of which continues to this day, can serve as a colorful confirmation of these words.
Migration policies in Europe
Many studies suggest that an aging population is a marker of the welfare of the state, and a decrease in fertility is dictated by an increase in life expectancy and the principle of expediency. However, despite these allegations, Europe regularly updates the population at the expense of migrants. Migration policy requires a delicate and controlled implementation, which cannot be said about the last wave of the "invasion of foreigners" on the land of the European Union. Europeans use the rotation model, which implies the return of migrants to their homeland after they reach retirement age. Recent events illustrate the impossibility of assimilation of the arriving population, and their voluntary return seems unlikely.
Migration policy of the countries of the former USSR
In the post-Soviet space, everything looks a little different. The so-called labor migration (working on a rotational basis with the absence of an employee in the home for 10-11 months) is developing at full speed. In fact, workers come home as a resort. The work shift takes place mainly in cities with a population of over one million, at construction sites, factories, the mining industry with the possibility of further relocation closer to the place of work. The difference between this migration policy from the European one is that it serves to attract highly qualified specialists (as in the USA) and the corresponding workforce. Due to economic and political conditions, the countries of the post-Soviet space do not see the need for inviting low-skilled workers and simply dependents, especially since unemployment benefits in some regions barely reach $ 20 per month.
China Migration Policy
China was faced with the need to expand the territory, which resulted in the lease of land of neighboring states. The government encourages population migration to other countries and marriage with representatives of other states, since the number of women in the republic itself is much smaller than the male population. It is clear that such migration does not imply a return to the Middle Kingdom at the age of 65. The Chinese, settling in distant countries, live apart according to their laws, which allows us to conclude that they do not want to accept the culture and traditions of the countries in which they live, as well as methodical expansion, the consequences of which could be worse than the European migration crisis.
Options for the development of the modern demographic situation
In fact, the aging of the country's population against the background of stable fertility (at the rate of 2 children per woman) indicates an increase in the standard of living, its comfort, one might say, sufficient predictability. A trend can be considered dangerous when the birth rate increases annually, but the population decreases at the same rate. There are many options for the formation of a demographic situation; they differ only in the number of factors taken into account when compiling them. However, one thing is certain - the people of the earth will have to reconsider their attitude to the age of a person in the range of 64-100 years and learn to accept the "gifts of maturity" and experience.