Opinions on the degree of dependence of the Russian economy on hydrocarbon exports differ widely. This is because such judgments often have hidden political connotations. Some argue that the country's wealth is almost entirely based on revenues from the sale of oil and gas. Others insist that the Russian economy is sufficiently diversified, so hydrocarbon exports do not play a critical role in maintaining its stability. Different methods of determining the structure of the budget give conflicting information about what share in it is income received from the oil and gas industry.
Commodity Economics
Some countries rich in minerals prefer to go the easy way and focus on the development of the mining industry. This economic policy is controversial. The standard accusations against the countries with the so-called raw material economy boil down to the fact that instead of investing in high-tech production, they rely on natural resources, which in the foreseeable future can be exhausted.
The importance of innovation and industrial modernization is beyond doubt. However, one wonders how much one should trust the predictions about the depletion of world mineral reserves. This primarily refers to hydrocarbons, without which modern civilization is unthinkable.
World reserves of black gold
About 60 years ago, the theory of the oil peak gained wide popularity. She argued that at the beginning of the 21st century, humanity will face a global shortage of black gold. This prediction did not come true, since the studies underlying it did not take into account the invention of new mining methods.
An unsuccessful forecast called into question the possibility of calculating the global hydrocarbon peak time. With confidence we can only say that someday the oil reserves will be exhausted, since it is a non-renewable resource. The report, published by the International Energy Agency, contains the following conclusion: global reserves of black gold are large, but not eternal.
The role of hydrocarbon exports
To understand whether the domestic economy is really hopelessly dependent on the constantly changing quotations of world exchanges, it is necessary to objectively assess the share of oil in the Russian budget. A comparative analysis of the income structure of countries on the list of major energy suppliers on the planet will help create the picture that is closest to reality.
If we take as a criterion not the share of oil in the Russian budget, but the number of exported barrels per capita, it turns out that in this rating the first lines are occupied by such countries as Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Norway. The Russian Federation in this indicator is in 22nd place.
To compare the percentage of oil in the Russian budget with a similar value in other hydrocarbon-rich countries, it is necessary to choose the most objective calculation method. Some argue that the energy sector provides about half of the country's revenue. This figure is based on official data, but does not reflect the real situation. When it comes to oil revenues in the Russian budget, one should take into account its complex structure. In addition, there are certain subtleties in the terminology used by the Ministry of Finance in its reports.
Consolidated income
A realistic assessment of the degree to which the Russian budget is dependent on oil should be based on comprehensive information. Only taking into account the consolidated income of the state can we determine what role energy exports play in the economy. According to official reports, the contribution of the hydrocarbon industry is about 20% of tax revenue. This figure is very different from the assertion that the share of oil in the Russian budget reaches 50%. The reason for this contradiction lies in the peculiarities of the country's financial system.
The federal budget, the share of oil in which actually reaches 50%, cannot serve as an indicator of the total volume of state revenues. It does not include insurance premiums, as well as a significant portion of corporate and individual taxes. In the consolidated income of the Russian Federation, reflecting the real economic situation, the share of hydrocarbon exports is about two times lower than in the federal budget.
The collapse in energy prices
The consequences of the catastrophic drop in the cost of black gold in 2014 demonstrate in practice the degree of influence of the commodity sector on the country's overall well-being. They confirm that the share of oil in the Russian budget plays an important, but not critical role. The onset of a period of low hydrocarbon prices led to the collapse of the national currency, but the main indicators of the domestic economy look quite acceptable.