About five hundred years ago, China was a world economic leader and, according to economists, will come back to first place by 2030. Over the past decade, the share of developing countries in world GDP has been steadily increasing. The main contribution to the change in proportions is made by the BRICS countries, mainly China, India and Brazil.
Economics in ancient times
In ancient times, the state of the economy was largely correlated with the number of people living in the country. Based on available data on the number of inhabitants, British scientist Angus Maddison, specializing in macroeconomic history, and Michael Sembalest, an expert at JP Morgan investment bank, estimated the share of countries in world GDP since ancient times.
At the beginning of our era, the two most densely populated countries of the world, India and China, accounted for, respectively, a third and a quarter of the inhabitants of the Earth, in the same proportion and their contribution to the world economy. Since about 1500, China has come out on top in the world in terms of the country's share in world GDP. The economies of the territories in which Russia and the leading European countries were subsequently formed had about the same GDP. In 1500, Russia's GDP amounted to $ 8,458 million, Germany - $ 8,256 million (estimated in international dollars by Giri-Khamis at the 1990 exchange rate), and the leading world economy in China - $ 61,800 million.
Changing trends
After the first industrial revolution of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, the level of GDP produced ceased to depend on the number of employees and was primarily determined by the development of technology.
As a result of the technical re-equipment of industry in the United States, starting in the 1850s, the country's share in world GDP began to increase rapidly and continued to grow until about the 1950s. And from this period it has changed little. The Japanese economy, which before the First World War even lagged behind the countries of Eastern Europe, began to grow from the 60s of the last century as a result of the technical revolution. Now it is the third country in the world in terms of GDP. Due to technological backwardness, the shares of the economies of India and China have been declining for a long time and only began to grow in the last 50 years. The shares of Great Britain, France and Germany are constantly decreasing throughout the 20th century.
The structure of the global economy in 2017
The undoubted leadership of the United States in terms of the share of countries in world GDP has long been indisputable and significant. The country accounts for about a quarter of the global economy (24.3%), which in monetary terms is about $ 18 trillion. The US economy is larger than the total economy of countries ranking 3rd to 10th in terms of GDP. In the 21st century, 5% of the world's population lives in the country and a quarter of world GDP is produced, while the Asian continent (excluding Japan) accounts for 60% of the population and only a third of GDP.
The second largest share of the country in world GDP is China, which is gradually crowding the United States in all major macroeconomic indicators. And according to all forecasts, it will overtake in the coming decades, as the dynamics of the country's development and forecasts of the world's leading experts accurately show. The country has a GDP of $ 11 trillion with a share of 14.8%. In third place is the European Union with approximately the same indicators. If we take only countries, then Japan follows China with $ 4.4 trillion of GDP and 6% of the shares. Russia is in 12th place with a share of 1.8%, which is constantly decreasing, in 2013 the country accounted for 3%.
Long-term forecasts
According to some forecasts, thanks to the fourth industrial revolution, by 2050, world GDP will increase by about half. China will come out on top with a share of 20%, followed by India and the United States.
The share of developing countries in world GDP will be 50%, and perhaps their economies will occupy 6 of the 7 first places. At the same time, Indonesia will take fourth place, while Mexico will overtake Britain and Germany.