There is such a rare profession - a futurologist. This is a specialist who is able to predict the future. The people believe that this is possible only with the help of clairvoyance or fortunetelling cards. A futurologist is not a palmist or any other specialist adventurer. The profession is quite serious, and the predictions of such an analyst are reliable. Let's figure out who they call a futurologist, what these people do, why their words are worthy of attention.
Futurology is a science
Modern scientists face several challenges. They need to comprehensively study the phenomenon and describe its development over time. Futurology is a science that, on the basis of causal relationships and established laws, predicts social development. Agree, this is a prediction of the future. The subject of futurology is very distant horizons. The specialist studies history, delves into the traditions of peoples and tries to understand where the social process is moving. In fact, a futurologist is an analyst who needs to relate the achievements of several related branches of science. He should have a broad horizons, a serious knowledge base. The development of society is influenced, it would seem, by such trifles as the habits laid down in childhood, common ways of interaction of individuals, images imposed by the media, and the like. That is, a futurologist is a specialist, so to speak, of a wide profile, possessing encyclopedic knowledge.
Subject of study
The question of where humanity is going has occupied philosophers at all times. Modern experts here have not discovered anything new. But they improved the methodology of studying the future. Do not wonder. Having understood who a futurologist is, you yourself will see that this analyst is not entirely engaged in forecasts. It is better to say right away that an analysis is underway of changes that are going on implicitly, their results and the likelihood of an impact on the processes. The name of this science comes from the English word futurum (future in translation). It is based on a rigorous study of social trends that affect the state of countries and peoples. In order to influence events, it is necessary to understand them, to know the laws of behavior of people and collectives. This is exactly what futurology does. It is based on the development of mathematicians and sociologists, takes into account the achievements of economists, physicists, biologists and other industries. All this is only to understand how the situation will develop in one particular country and what it will give to humanity as a whole.
About the "butterfly effect"
It is impossible to understand who such a futurologist is if you do not explain some of the nuances. The fact is that direct, previously used analytics is now considered obsolete. Hegel’s dialectic is said to have ceased to work in the last century. The processes in society, of course, are affected by simple and well-known laws, but not to the full extent. And by the way, they are only partially interested in futurologists. They pay more attention to “sleeping,” or undeveloped factors. These are some processes or phenomena that are only ripening, not yet influencing events. They are called "dormant gnomes." These factors can spontaneously or under the influence of certain forces activate at any moment and affect the whole of humanity. There is a well-known description of how butterfly wings in America, for example, lead to tsunamis in the Indian Ocean. This, of course, is just a model. But it perfectly characterizes how the predictions of futurologists are formed. It is necessary to take into account the mass of nuances unknown to the general public, to trace their interconnections and understand what the processes of interaction will lead to.
Futurist profession
Before we consider the benefits of this branch of knowledge, it is necessary to describe people involved in forecasting and shaping the future. Who is doing this in real life? Practitioners-futurologists quite a lot in the West. Below we will talk about some of them. But not every scientist with a sufficient base will undertake such a complex matter. A specialist should have creative thinking, excellent imagination, the ability to form unusual ideas on the verge of the possible. In addition, they have to be separated from outright fiction. Often, futurists, by the way, draw their brilliant projects from literature. They are making full use of the fruits of human genius, both past and present. The latter, in order to advance in this profession, it is necessary to be able to rise above the ordinary, to go beyond the generally accepted rules. And this, believe me, is more difficult than mastering science.
How is the forecast formed
Let's give a diagram of a futurologist. We must say right away that it will be primitive, but it will give an understanding of the activities of this kind of specialist. Today they talk a lot about the Third World War. Naturally, the topic did not pass by the attention of specialists. How to understand what exactly can happen? To do this, you need to collect information about:
- probable participants;
- current potential;
- trends in new developments;
- traditions of peoples and political systems;
- estimated resources;
- personalities of opponents' leaders.
The above is the usual base used by the military. The futurologist also takes into account an unknown factor. For our topic, this could be, for example, the unexpected death of a leader of a country, for the influence of which potential opponents are fighting. Or an uprising in any backward country where an important resource is located (a plant, a mining enterprise). Less explicit factors visible to the average citizen from the media are also taken into account. Having collected all the possible, the specialist begins their analysis, losing the situation. The conclusions, of course, will be multiple, limited by the theory of probability.
Ian Pearson
The most famous futurologists regularly shock the audience with their ideas. Many of them, by the way, use politics to attract the electorate. So, the Englishman Ian Pearson at the beginning of the century predicted that people will be able to experience the pleasures of love in virtual space. Then the idea seemed incredible, now it is no one shocking. He is also known for the prediction that a person will be able to transfer consciousness to a computer after a certain time. By the way, programmers are seriously working in this direction, as the media assure.
Predictions for Solving the Food Problem
Many serious scientists are working on this serious issue. The population of the planets is growing exponentially, and resources are reduced by a multiple. Futurologists suggested paying attention to the oceans, which have not yet been fully explored. Water, populated by rich flora and fauna, occupies a large part of the planet, and people do not really use it. Ian Pearson predicts that science will develop methods and related technologies that will get food from the ocean. This refers not only to fishing, but also the processing of many types of algae, probably their industrial cultivation.
About World War III
The imagination of people is excited by the predictions of futurologists. It is interesting to know how our descendants will live, unless, of course, we all burn up in a nuclear fire. Perhaps the most popular ideas of futurologists relate to the probability of the Third World. They cannot say with accuracy whether it will happen or not. It depends on politicians and the military. But what it may be, futurologists speak a lot and with pleasure. In their opinion, human participation in upcoming fights will be minimal. Fighters will lead the technical devices that fight among themselves. The military will be safe, which cannot be said of the civilians. The flame of nuclear fires will fall precisely on the heads of the ordinary population, and completely turn their world upside down. To the reader’s reassurance, even futurologists consider the likelihood of a major war to be minimal.
Just a few names
It is not possible to talk about all the ideas and research of futurologists in a short article. Some of their work is already being exploited by politicians in a continuous information war. We will only give a few names so that the reader has an idea of the personalities who created our present from the distant and not very past. The following futurologists are considered the most famous in the expert community: Huntington, Toffler, Fukuyama. Surely you also heard these names. The activities of these people fascinate not so much with the content of forecasts as with the ingenious approaches to the analysis of events. It is clear that reading them is far from necessary in retelling. Have you tried to make a probabilistic forecast of the distant or near future? Share in the comments, discuss together.