This year, âsympathizersâ (if they still remained on Ukrainian soil outside the parliament) marks the two-year anniversary of the coup d'etat, proudly called the ârevolution of dignityâ. What achievements does the current government boast of and what will happen next with âindependentâ Ukraine? The famous Kiev political scientist Mikhail Pogrebinsky shared his thoughts about this with the media.
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Mikhail Pogrebinsky was born in 1946, a native of Kiev. At the university, which later became known as the Taras Shevchenko Kiev National University, he received the specialty of âtheoretical physicistâ, a profession completely unrelated to politics.
The future political scientist began his career at the department of microdevices in one of the universities in Kiev, where in twenty years he has gone from a regular engineer to the head of the laboratory.
The first steps in politics were taken in the 80s, while participating in the election campaign during the preparation for the elections to the Supreme Soviet of the USSR.
Pogrebinsky - political scientist
Mikhail Borisovich Pogrebinsky is well known both in Ukraine and abroad. The secret of his fame is his extensive experience in politics, his ability to âsee throughâ the situation, read information between the lines and, drawing conclusions, not be based on words, but evaluate actions and deeds.
Tasks of the Independent Center
Pogrebinsky, a political scientist, is a member of many election campaigns, he created an independent consultancy center - the Kiev Center for Political Studies and Conflictology (CPCC), whose tasks include conducting various levels of social research and providing political advice.
Today, the center's attention is focused on conducting an expert-analytical assessment of the impact of "democracy" on the course of transformation processes in Ukrainian society.
Pogrebinsky on the situation in Ukraine
The statements of the famous political scientist contain an extremely critical attitude towards the current government. His latest articles emphasize the inconsistency of the policies proclaimed by President Poroshenko with the pressing problems of the people and public opinion.
The political scientist bases his statements on the results of opinion polls.
An example of the divergence of the interests of the authorities and the people is the data on the results of the analysis of the attitude of society to three priority problems.
Priorities: real and official
According to the results of opinion polls, the issue of relations with Russia is by no means paramount for Ukrainian citizens.
Today, in the first place of all the most exciting problems is the war in the East, the second is given to corruption in state bodies, and the third in the minds of Ukrainians is the growth of unemployment.
The authorities, vested with power, persistently offer society their alignment: in their opinion (read - to a strong and ardent desire), among the people the priority and overshadowing all other problems is the issue of countering aggression by Russia. Everything else, as the song says, is later. Naturally, this position is being replicated by the media with all their might, for which, as you know, from informing to propaganda is one step. A similar conflict, as noted by Mikhail Pogrebinsky, is also observed in several other issues.
Tragedy
According to the UN, 9167 people were killed, more than 21 thousand wounded in the period of hostilities in the ATO zone.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine announced another figure: from the beginning of the ATO, there are 2600 military personnel killed and more than 9 thousand wounded.
In spite of thisâŚ
Despite this, opinion polls show that today the majority of the population of Ukraine continues to treat Russia well.
The political scientist believes that in order to maintain statehood in Ukraine, society must go through a recovery process similar to denazification in post-war Germany.
The main thing
This is set by Maidan as a fundamental part of the mainstream: our enemy is Russia, our goal is a national revolution, building a national state, etc.
The radical part of the Maidan, which is composed of Ukrainian nationalists, is trying to cherish its dream for many decades - in one fell swoop and forever break away from eternal enemies, the Russians - to introduce into the consciousness of Ukrainians. The collapse for the sake of this "holy" cause of Ukraine itself - in their opinion, the price is quite reasonable.
Mikhail Pogrebinsky believes that the political unipolar world proclaimed by the nationalists (the right sector, âFreedomâ), which consists in affirming the primacy of Ukrainians in relation to other nations inhabiting the territory of Ukraine, and most importantly, in proclaiming the eternal enemy of the Galicians - Russia and all Russian - a common enemy of all Ukrainians, impossible. A call to such a world is actually a call to war, when, contrary to the officially approved mantra: âUkraine is one!â, One Ukrainian looks at another through the scope of the machine gun.
"Reconciliation framework"
Mikhail Pogrebinsky believes that for the continued existence and development of the country, a âbalanced ideological frameworkâ should be built, in which it is necessary to consider bipolar reality. Ukrainians are a two-part nation in which everyone deserves equal respect.
For the existence of Ukraine within its current borders, according to the political scientist, expressed by him in the media, it is necessary to build a kind of "conciliation ideological framework", the basis of which is the priority of human rights, respect for the security interests of the countries of Europe and Russia, the maximum interaction beneficial to all,
About the elections in the Donbass
If elections in the Donbass are not held before the end of the year, the director of the Center for Political Studies believes, the EU will decide to lift sanctions against Russia. For Ukraine, this can have disastrous consequences: a categorical revision of the attitude of Europeans to the position of the Ukrainian side.
Today, only the âOpposition blocâ is ready to vote for the law on elections in the Donbass. The rest are awaiting directions from Sikorsky Street (the US Embassy is located at this address in Kiev).
According to Mr. Steinmeier, elections must be held before the middle of the year, parliament should vote according to the law during the current month.
The March meeting of the âNorman Fourâ in Paris contained signs of the beginning of the winding up of the Minsk process in view of the recognition of its futility, the political scientist believes. Kiev does not agree with its main provisions. It all depends on the perseverance of the Western "partners."
On the interests of "partners"
According to the political scientist, the existence of a âsmoldering conflictâ in eastern Ukraine is beneficial for Americans, as it allows them to exercise control over relations between Europe and Russia. Europeans benefit from the integration of Donbass into Ukraine or âcontractual autonomyâ under the terms of the Minsk agreements.
About "independence"
Everything depends on the perseverance of the Western "partners" in the "independent" Ukraine. And initially.
According to M. Pogrebinsky, the current tragedy began with the Russophobic initiative of Karl Bildt and Radoslov Sikorsky, the foreign ministers of Sweden and Poland, the authors of the Eastern Partnership project, which envisages the inclusion of Ukraine in the EUâs circle of interests.
Nobody was going to take her there. This is now clear to everyone. The "partners" urgently needed to withdraw Ukraine from the traditional close relations with Russia. The artificial fanning of tantrums around Yanukovychâs refusal to sign the Association Agreement has led to the current crisis in the country.
Political analyst M. Pogrebinsky is sure that without external support, the conflict would not have acquired such proportions. The matter would be limited to a few rallies, Crimea would remain Ukrainian, the war in the Donbass would not flare up.
Pawn in the big game
According to the political scientist, expressed both in conversations with journalists and in a number of public speeches, the ârevolution of dignityâ in Ukraine, that is, the Maidan with its anti-Russian plans, is nothing more than a passing pawn in the hands of Western politicians, and before all, USA.
Geopolitical competition for Ukraine between the West and Russia was initially fraught with catastrophe for a rebellious country.
âThe collapse happenedâ
According to Mikhail Pogrebinsky, Ukraine is now experiencing difficulties endowed with all the signs of collapse: in two years, a quarter of the economic potential and millions of jobs have been lost, Crimea has been lost, the Donbass is âhalf-lostâ. The inflation rate in the country, rising prices for the most necessary goods, as well as utility tariffs exceeded all possible norms. Numerous cuts in budget spending, payments and benefits put Ukrainians on the brink of survival. And this is not the end of trouble.
Who's guilty?
Society does not dare to face the truth: the problem is a product of the very âEuropean choiceâ for which such a high price has been paid.
According to M. Pogrebinsky, a weak Ukraine â anti-Russian and de-industrialized â is just beneficial to Europe and America.
Power must go. Why doesnât leave?
Ukraine today is in an extremely difficult situation. This should have been noticed even by those who brought her into this situation.
If the power did not take place and is undergoing a crisis (and it is precisely so), it must leave. This is the logic of political life in a democratic country.
February 16, the parliament could not vote for distrust of the Yatsenyuk government, which would allow the head of the country to be resigned to a dead end by the Cabinet of Ministers. With the required minimum of 194 votes, a vote of no confidence was supported by 226 deputies.
Cynicism example
During a conversation with reporters at RIA Novosti (Ukraine), Mikhail Pogrebinsky noted that the story of the failed resignation of Prime Minister Yatsenyuk can be included in the anthology of Ukrainian parliament as an example of a situation where âabsolute cynicism and complete lack of dignityâ triumphs.
For the layman: there are signs of a corrupt oligarchic âagreementâ in which the high interests of the âpartnersâ (read: patrons) of the current government are implicated.
What's next?
The authorities are not leaving, pushing ahead of the ballot by all means and successfully âfindingâ the âKremlin handâ in all manifestations of civil protest.
The political scientist considers the reason for the deadlock situation to be a glaring fact, which only a fool or stubborn can deny today: Maidan (read: âthe revolution of dignityâ, a stronghold of democracy and patriotism, as well as a guarantee of future people's prosperity), having come to power, has blocked even those democratic instruments, which possessed the "criminal" political regimes of the "successors".
Mikhail Pogrebinsky does not undertake to predict the outcome; he answers to journalists' questions that he does not have âpositive forecastsâ.