All events in the political sphere are connected and have certain reasons. They are associated with social, economic and other factors. To make a forecast in the political sphere, a correct analysis is required. It has a certain structure, involves the use of special techniques. How a political analysis is conducted will be discussed later.
General definition
Political analysis is a symbiosis of different techniques that allow you to explore certain political events. Based on the study, it turns out to suggest how the situation will develop in the future. If you make the right assumptions about the future political situation, you can make the right decisions, which will be highly competent.
Political analysis in Russia and other countries is considered from two different points of view. The first approach suggests that this is a variation of ordinary logical research. It is used to analyze political problems of a fundamental type.
The second approach recognizes the duality of the presented study. As a result, theoretical and applied analysis is highlighted. As a result of such activities, a conclusion is given.
The task of analyzing the political environment is to select a strategy that will be based on specific, well-founded criteria and goals. It allows you to highlight the most promising areas that in the future will improve social conditions.
The subjects of the presented analytical activities are:
- subdivisions of power structures, the competence of which includes conducting political research;
- analytical centers developing new methods and testing them in real political conditions;
- private research centers that serve the needs of one or more customers;
- Media that are able to process the information received accordingly.
Research Areas
The process of political analysis is carried out immediately in 5 critical areas:
- Features of existing strategic issues.
- The result after the past and current directions in the political sphere.
- Determining the degree of influence of these results on the ability to solve existing problems.
- New or existing alternatives in the long run, their likely consequences.
- Choosing strategic alternatives to help solve the problem.
Methodologies
There are different methods of political analysis. The main ones are:
- The method of problem structuring. Existing proposals in this case are in doubt. So it turns out to form political decisions at the initial stage of decision making.
- Prediction. These are methods of political analysis, which provides knowledge, relevant in the current situation, about upcoming events. Such conditions may arise in the field of economics, society, or directly in politics. They are very likely to occur if one of the planning alternatives is adopted.
- Recommendations This approach provides the analyst with knowledge that can be directly applied in the course of strategic decision making.
- Monitoring This approach provides information on policies and trends. Based on the monitoring of external and internal conditions, the analyst can choose the optimal direction for subsequent actions.
- Rating. The method provides information on the degree of achievement of the goals of various political courses. This allows you to evaluate the quality of decisions made.
- Informed judgments of eyewitnesses. The judgments of some observers are confirmed by the judgments of other entities. Therefore, this technique is also called comparative political analysis.
- Content Analysis Allows you to explore and draw conclusions about the features and characteristics of texts in documents of a political type.
Analysis steps
So, the structure of political analysis includes several mandatory stages. At the preliminary stage of the study, a meta-analysis of the mindset of the performer is carried out. It can be linear or non-linear. Analysts with a mentality of the first type can solve the problem, moving forward in the course of studying the problem. They perform logical tasks step by step, which allows you to achieve your goal.
Analysts with a non-linear mindset are moving from one stage of analysis to another in a chaotic manner. They can advance simultaneously in two directions. The different parts of the problem are becoming increasingly clear to them. The information received takes its place in the research scheme. The choice of approach depends solely on the preferences of the analyst.
The first step is to identify the existing problem. For this, information is being collected. On its basis, the problem is analyzed. Data collection is carried out using one of two methods. The first involves documentary research, and the second - fieldwork. This allows you to explore the problem from different angles. In the course of documentary research, the study of relevant literature, articles in scientific and professional journals, books, dissertations, etc.
Field studies involve surveys, research on unpublished reports, and other documents.
In the course of political analysis, a phased progress towards the goal is carried out. After identifying the problem, the next stage begins. At the second stage, ways to solve it are analyzed. For this, evaluation criteria are selected, and a specification of alternative political courses is carried out. You also need to predict the consequences of each alternative. Using the selected criteria, the prospects of each of the possible directions are evaluated.
At the third stage, recommendations are developed for follow-up actions. They are brought to the users of the analysis in an appropriate form. The information should be understandable so that all persons involved in the implementation of the selected alternative can fulfill their responsibilities.
Scientific Instrumentation
Socio-political analysis allows us to solve many problems of society. He uses special tools for this:
- Consistency. The approach should be systematized to track objects in their totality. Between them you need to identify relationships and interactions.
- Study of the functional structure. Groups of objects have corresponding connections; they interact within the system according to certain laws.
- Comparative analysis. It allows to identify analogues, to compare some phenomena, to find contradictions. Objects that fall within its area of competence have certain differences. Phenomena and events are tracked in dynamics.
- Statistical and mathematical approach. Allow you to present the current situation in the form of charts, diagrams and graphs. With their help, build models and represent socio-political phenomena.
Philosophical attributes
The foundations of political analysis are based on two basic philosophical principles. They are actually based on them, and also implemented in practice.
These principles must be applied in the analysis:
- All political phenomena are interconnected. This is the main statement that affects the results of the study. Such relationships may be determined in the short term or in the long term. It is necessary to determine whether they are significant, if not, such links are discarded, not used in the analysis. All important aspects are evaluated from a position whether they have a direct or indirect impact on the situation. You need to investigate both random and reasonable events, internal and external relations.
- Development is ongoing. This principle is also called historicism. All phenomena, including political ones, are constantly developing. This principle is also called systematic. Cycles develop in a spiral. Recession is followed by a rise.
Types of analysis
Carrying out political analysis for a society or its separate category, its various forms are applied. The choice depends on the objectives of the study. The most common types of analysis are:
- diachronous;
- data;
- dispersive;
- documents;
- cluster
- cohorts;
- contextual;
- correlation;
- multidimensional;
- multifactorial;
- synchronous;
- systemic;
- structural.
Data analysis is an empirical approach to the study of political phenomena. It is carried out to obtain primary information, as well as to disclose some relationships between events and the analyzed data.
Among the approaches to political analysis, the diachronous type of research should be considered. He considers events, processes in their time range. This allows you to determine the genesis of the studied objects with the designation of a certain chronology of events.
Analysis of variance proposed R. Fisher. It allows you to track differences that occur systematically between the consequences of changes in the political sphere that occur under certain circumstances.
Documentation research is one of the most common in the political sphere. It provides the most accurate and complete information that the analyst processes.
Cluster analysis is a method that involves grouping data on phenomena and events by combining homogeneous objects into specific classes. This allows you to get an idea of the big picture by adding homogeneous elements into a single system.
Other approaches
An analysis of the political system can be performed using cohort research. These are separate groups of society. They are examined to fix and determine the distinctive features, political actions, behavior in certain circumstances. Based on the results of this analysis, long-term decisions are made.
Contextual analysis is used when there is a need to assess the characteristic features of a phenomenon in the political sphere. A comparison is also made in context with other political entities.
Components
Political analysis has three main components. For their sake, research is being conducted. These include:
- The study of the real situation in politics.
- Forecast of the further development of this situation.
- Making decisions based on the analysis.
Forecasting in the field of political relations is an important aspect of decision-making and control in the long run. To do this, a comprehensive analysis is carried out, which allows you to track a set of options for achieving your goals. In practical political activity, specific tasks are posed. To do this, make a political forecast, which relates to the likelihood of the development of certain events, as well as their final result.
In general, forecasting is a scientifically sound probability calculation. It is carried out in order to identify prospects, possible conditions and consequences of the adoption of certain decisions. This is a search for development paths and trends in the aspect of a particular phenomenon. Forecasting allows you to consider all the alternatives, choose from them the most suitable direction.
In the course of such work, not only the development prospect is determined, but also the deadlines for fulfilling the tasks set. Forecasting and prediction are non-identical phenomena. They have different approaches to designating future events. Prediction is based on the study of a large number of variables. This procedure is also different from planning.
Political Forecast
Features of forecasting in the field of politics are based on the anticipatory reflection of the object of research in the course of scientific knowledge. Also, this procedure reflects the prospects for the development of a specific phenomenon. Such judgments are justified, supported by knowledge of the laws of their development.
In the course of the forecast, the situation is modeled by creating a mental image of the object of study. Such may be society, economics, science, technology and so on.
When developing a forecast, two main actions are carried out. They relate to the problem-target criterion:
- Search forecast. Allows you to determine the possible state of the object of analysis in the future. This is a projection of modern events in the distant future, their logical conclusion and consequences.
- The forecast is normative. It is carried out in order to search for directions, opportunities, as well as resources for achieving specifically designated goals.
Policy forecasting can have different perspectives. The scope of such a review is determined based on the objectives of the study. Prediction can be performed in the near, medium and long term.