Today, in a large number of draft business plans, even if they have an appropriate section containing an analytical aspect, the problem is narrowed only to the analysis of financial or banking risks and the full range of risks is not reflected. However, specialists need to make extensive use of both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis. Let us dwell on the second type.
Quantitative analysis applies only to risks that are qualified in the process of qualitative analysis as those with the use of which a significant impact on the achievement of goals. When conducting such an analysis, the effect of events of this kind should be evaluated with a specific digital rating assigned.
Quantitative analysis may sometimes not be required when developing effective risk response measures. The most common among commonly used analytical methods are the following:
- sensitivity research, which involves determining the reflection of the degree of uncertainty of each individual element of a business project when accepting other elements of a basic value;
- consideration of the predicted monetary value by multiplying each value by the probability of its occurrence, the results are summarized.
A quantitative analysis of any investment project determines the numerical value of the values of certain risks. It is based on the territory of probabilities, the theory of operations research and mathematical statistics.
A quantitative analysis is carried out in the event of two conditions: a basic calculation of a business project and a full-fledged qualitative analysis. Its task is to numerically measure the impact of some changes in factors on the dynamics of criteria showing the effectiveness of the project.
Often used methods of quantitative analysis of business projects:
- analysis of such performance indicators as net present value and rate of return, as well as profitability index;
- adjustment of the discount rate ;
- Monte Carlo method (second name - simulation);
- building a decision tree.
All of the listed
analytical methods of business projects are based on probabilistic approaches.
Quantitative and qualitative analysis and their effectiveness directly depends on the requirements for the final indicators (results), information base and the level of reliability of planning. So, for example, for small projects, quite effective methods are: analysis of adjustments to the discount rate and sensitivity. For large projects - simulation and construction of curves of probability distributions. If the result of the project depends on the adoption of certain decisions, it is necessary to build a decision tree.
Thus, the analysis methods should be applied in a comprehensive manner using their simplest varieties at the assessment stage, and more complex and requiring additional data - with the resulting justification of business projects.