In 2017, experts, relying on official Russian statistics, said that Russia was once again in a demographic pit. The reason for this was that the female population of the country is aging, and young people are afraid to have children because of the unstable economic situation and the tension in the political arena.
After the difficult nineties, another population crisis was observed in Russia at the beginning of the twenty-first century and only in 2008 did it gradually decline. Since 1992, only by 2013 the number of citizens of the Russian Federation began to increase. But already in 2014, a new wave of demographic decline began.
Demographic peaks and pits
It is customary to call a demographic pit an extremely low population indicator, a significant decrease in the birth rate along with an increase in mortality. Experts attribute all modern problems with stable reproduction of the population of Russia to the sixties of the last century, when, after the post-war peak, the birth rate declined. The situation worsened in the eighties, when mortality increased along with declining birth rates.
In the twentieth century, Russia experienced more than one demographic crisis. The events of World War I and the Civil War did not cause significant damage to the population, since in those days the birth rate in our country was higher than in Western countries. Further collectivization and famine led to the collapse of the rural way of life of most citizens, the number of urban residents increased. Many women became hired workers, which shook the institution of the family. As a result of all these events, the birth rate has fallen.
Mass mobilization in 1939 also contributed to a decrease in the birth rate, since extramarital affairs were condemned at that time, and early marriages were a normal state of affairs. All this does not yet fully fit the definition of a demographic hole, but the population began to decline even then.
As a result of losses in the Second World War, post-war famine and the forced deportation of certain peoples, extramarital relations spread. Fertility declined to 20-30% of the pre-war level, while in Germany the pace remained stable high - 70% of the pre-war years. After the war, there was a population explosion, but he could not stabilize the situation and restore indirect and actual losses.
Period from the late eighties to the present
According to statistics, from the beginning of the 50s to the end of the 80s there was a stable natural population growth, but nevertheless the republics of Central Asia and Transcaucasia differed at the best rates. Directly in Russia, the birth rate fell below the level of 1964.
A slight improvement happened in 1985, but after a few years another demographic hole was recorded. The sharp decline in population in the nineties was the result of the simultaneous imposition of several unfavorable trends. Firstly, the birth rate has fallen and mortality has increased, and secondly, other social and economic factors have also influenced: crime, poverty, and so on.
The consequences of the demographic pit of the 90s were overcome relatively recently. In the Russian Federation, the rate of population reproduction for the first time increased only by 2013. This was facilitated by an active state policy, support for young families and other measures, more on which below.
In 2014, Russia again suffered a demographic crisis. So, the demographic pits (period 1990-2014) - this is one big fall with an attempt to overcome the crisis, but another failure.
The causes of the demographic crisis
Population reproduction crises become a reflection of the existence of certain problems in society. The demographic pit is a consequence of social, economic, medical, ethical, informational and other factors:
- A general decline in fertility and an increase in mortality in developed countries, regardless of the quality of life.
- Replacing the previously existing traditional social model of society with new trends.
- General decline in living standards.
- Environmental degradation.
- Decrease in the general level of public health.
- Increase mortality.
- Mass alcoholism and drug addiction.
- State refusal of health support policy.
- Deformation of the structure of society.
- The degradation of the institutions of family and marriage.
- An increase in the number of single parent and child families or childless couples.
- The negative impact of new technologies on public health.
Scientists are divided on what particular reasons are dominant in a particular case. Demographer S. Zakharov argues that negative indicators of population growth are observed in any country at a certain stage of development. Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences S. Sulakshin considers the main reasons for the demographic holes to be the replacement of traditional Russian values with Western ones, the spiritual devastation of the Russian people, and the lack of a common ideology.
Signs of demographic problems
It is customary to define demographic pits in Russia and the world according to the following features:
- Fertility decline.
- Decrease in the birth rate.
- Decrease in life expectancy.
- Increase in mortality rate.
Immigration and emigration
The concepts of immigration and emigration are associated with the theme of demography . Emigration from Russia to other countries negatively affects the population. But, fortunately, all mass emigrations are already in the past. After the fall of the Berlin Wall , ethnic Germans who lived in the USSR returned to Germany, those who could be granted Israeli citizenship left in the 70s and 80s . After the collapse of the Union, the number of those leaving was reduced and reached a minimum by 2009. Starting next year, the number of immigrants began to increase.
Currently, a sharp increase in emigration is unlikely because few people leaving can obtain citizenship in the host countries. This does not mean that the number of people wishing to leave has decreased, just citizens are faced with quotas in other countries and do not want to live abroad “on bird's rights”.
As for the pace of immigration, in Russia the number of people leaving has long exceeded the number of people leaving. All twenty post-Soviet years, a significant flow of citizens of neighboring states was sent to our country, which compensated for the natural decline in population. It is noteworthy that the majority of these immigrants are compatriots who left for the republics of the USSR from the 50s to the 80s, as well as their direct descendants.
Distrust to Rosstat data
Of course, the issue of demography was not without fans of "conspiracy theories." Some even call the 1999 demographic pit the last, claiming that the statistics are deceiving, and in fact the modern population of the Russian Federation does not have 143 million citizens at all, and at best 80-90 million. Here Rosstat has something to answer, because the statistics are indirectly confirmed by many sources. Firstly, all registry offices provide primary information about the civil status, secondly, some conspiracy theorists themselves are co-authors of the Demographics Yearbooks, thirdly, other very authoritative demographic institutes in the world also use official statistics from Rosstat.
The economic impact of crises
Demographic holes have both positive and negative effects on the economy. At the second stage of population decline, the share of working-age citizens exceeds the share of the younger and older generations. At the third stage of the crisis, a negative effect is characteristic (the proportion of the older generation exceeds the able-bodied population, which creates a burden on society).
Consequences in education and the military
In connection with the demographic pit, the number of school graduates is decreasing, so universities are fighting for each student. In this regard, the issue of reducing the number of higher education institutions (from 1115 to 200) is being discussed, faculty layoffs by 20-50% are coming. Some politicians, however, say that such a move will get rid of universities that provide insufficient quality education.
At present, it is expected that the number of schoolchildren will increase by one million in five to six years, and another two million in the next five years. After the 2020s, an intensive reduction in the number of school-age children will begin.
Another consequence of demographic crises is a reduction in mobilization resources. All this has an impact on military reforms, forcing to cancel deferrals, reduce the number of troops and switch to the contact principle of manning. The danger of China developing a low-intensity conflict is heightened by low population density in the Far East. So, in the territories that make up more than 35% of the country, only 4.4% (less than 6.3 million) of citizens live. At the same time, 120 million people live in neighboring regions of Northeast China, 3.5 million in Mongolia, DPRK - 28.5 million, in the Republic of Korea - almost 50 million, in Japan - more than 130 million.
By the twenties of this century, the number of men of draft age will decrease by a third, and by 2050 - by more than 40%.
Social and demographic pits
In the life of society there have been tendencies towards the Scandinavian model of existence - a bachelor, familyless life. The number of children in families is gradually decreasing, and families in and of themselves. Until the end of the nineteenth century, Russia was a country with a young population. Then the number of children significantly exceeded the number of the older generation; it was customary to have five or more children in a family. In the sixties of the twentieth century, the process of demographic aging began, which was the result of a decrease in the birth rate. In the nineties, the Russian Federation has already become one of the countries with high rates of aging of citizens. Today, the proportion of people of retirement age in our country is 13%.
Threats of the demographic crisis
The pace of the demographic crisis in the country is uneven. Many researchers are inclined to believe that depopulation affects more specifically the Russian people. For example, according to researcher L. Rybakovsky, from 1989 to 2002, the number of Russians by nationality decreased by 7%, and the total population - by 1.3%. According to another ethnographer, up to 2025, more than 85% of the decline will occur in Russians. In all regions populated by Russians, a negative increase has recently been observed.
Given the high level of migration, the likely consequence of the demographic crisis in the Russian Federation will be a change in the national and religious composition of the population. For example, by 2030 every fifth resident of our country will practice Islam. In Moscow, every third birth is accounted for by migrants. All this can subsequently lead to the loss of the territorial integrity of the country.
Population forecasting
The next demographic hole in Russia (according to the forecast of Igor Beloborodov) is expected in 2025-2030. If the country can stay within its existing borders provided that the resident population is reduced, then only 80 million people will remain in Russia by 2080. The Russian demographer Anatoly Antonov claims that by the year 2050, only 70 million people will live in Russia without the revival of a large family. So, the 2017 demographic pit is either an opportunity to revive the country, or another point in consolidating trends in population decline.
The main ways out of the crisis
Many believe that solving problems in demography is possible only with the systematic strengthening of the institution of the traditional family. The current demographic policy of Russia so far involves only material support from parents (one-time assistance and maternity capital are paid). True, in the opinion of many politicians and experts, this form of support elicits a response only among the marginalized layers of the population or those who already create large families. For the middle class, this is not motivation.