The world is changing before our eyes, the right of the strong is already the prerogative of not only the United States and its satellites, as they would have written in the good old days. Russia went the same way and used force in Syria. Beijing’s official rhetoric is becoming increasingly harsh as a country that has not only economic ambitions, but also plans to become the third state in the world that can deal with issues by military means. Three critical nodes - Syria, Ukraine and the Korean Peninsula, where the interests of many countries clashed, determine the military-political situation in the world. Against the background of these “hot spots”, Afghanistan remained a little off the main information flow, which is in a nonequilibrium state and could explode at any moment.
North is becoming more accessible
There is probably global warming. The climate in the Arctic has become warmer. This fact and the development of new technologies for the extraction of natural resources have significantly increased interest in the region of many countries of the world. And not only the countries located in the Arctic zone. China, Korea, India, Singapore want to join the development of the Northern Sea Route and hydrocarbon production in the northern latitudes. Regional players - Russia, USA, Canada, Norway, Denmark - are increasing their military presence in the polar regions of their countries. Russia restores military bases on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago.
NATO countries are monitoring the air situation in the region and are also building up their intelligence and military capabilities. To deploy reinforcing forces in Norway organized warehouses of weapons and military equipment. The head of this country made a proposal at the NATO summit in Poland to develop a new alliance strategy that would allow the continued presence of the combined naval forces in the northern latitudes. It was also proposed to involve the armed forces of non-regional countries of the alliance and neutral ones - Sweden and Finland in joint exercises more widely. Both Russia and NATO countries conduct military exercises, air patrols of the Arctic regions and strategic aviation flights. Political peace in the Arctic exists amid a growing armed presence.
Heading west unchanged
Probably few people in Russia and NATO countries, except for frank hawks, believe in an open military clash. But an analysis of the military-political situation in the world shows that the policy of strategic containment and weakening of economic potential pursued in relation to Russia is undoubtedly a clear threat to security. The military infrastructure of the alliance is being built along the entire western Russian border. Four battalion tactical groups are deployed in the Baltic countries and coordination centers are being set up to receive and deploy additional forces; similar centers have been created in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania. This year, interceptor missiles at missile defense bases in Poland and Romania will be deployed, which have long been said that they are not directed against Russia. NATO officials announced that in doing so they covered the southern direction from a ballistic missile strike.
The administration of US President Donald Trump intends to force the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance to spend the required 3% of the country's budget on defense. Which in the foreseeable future will significantly increase the number of weapons concentrated near the borders of Russia. But nevertheless, economic restrictions formally attached to certain events pose a great danger.
Ukraine is also the West
A significant threat to Russia's national security is the conflict in the eastern regions of Ukraine. The hope for peace after the conclusion of the Minsk agreements, which determined the roadmap for the cessation of hostilities and the reintegration of certain regions of the Lugansk and Donbass regions, has not been realized. The region remains highly likely to resume hostilities. Mutual shelling of the armed forces of Ukraine and the self-proclaimed republics continues. The initiative to introduce peacekeeping forces, proposed by both Russia and Ukraine, was not realized because of a different understanding of the question as to where to send them and who will be part of these forces. This conflict will for a long time affect the military-political situation in the world as one of the points in the struggle against US global dominance. The situation in the east of Ukraine is largely a reflection of the situation in the world, where there is an increase in confrontation between global players. For Russia, this is a very unpleasant conflict, not only because of proximity to borders, but also because it can always serve as an information occasion for the introduction of new sanctions.
South direction
Since the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, the threat to national security from this direction has only increased. Despite the fact that Russia does not have a direct border with this country, the possible penetration of terrorists and allied obligations oblige them to closely monitor the situation in the region. Surveys of the military-political situation in the world indicate that in recent years there has been an increase in the number of terrorist and religious extremist gangs. And this cannot but cause concern. The answer to the question of what is happening in the world today is impossible without studying the situation in Afghanistan.
Almost a third of the militants come from the former Central Asian republics, including the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which has already participated in the preparation of terrorist acts in Russia, the Islamic Jihad Union and others. Unlike the largest armed force of the Taliban, which aims to create an Afghan caliphate, these organizations want to create an Islamic state in the Central Asian republics. In the southwest, the main factor destabilizing the military-political situation in the world, since the interests of many states also clash here, is the increase in the number of countries where the armed struggle against international terrorism is waged - these are Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya. The situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh zone , where Armenia and Azerbaijan are opposed to each other, periodically escalates. Georgia seeks NATO and the European Union and wants to restore territorial integrity. On the positive side, the Georgian Dream - Democratic Georgia party that came to power has announced the possibility of only a peaceful path to reunification with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Syrian crossroads
The once prosperous Middle Eastern country, almost completely destroyed, suffers from one of the longest-running military conflicts of the 21st century. Starting as a civil war, this war quickly grew into a struggle of all against all, in which dozens of countries participate. The clash of numerous interests affects not only the situation in the region, but also the entire modern military-political situation in the world.
The government forces of the Syrian Republic, with the support of the Iranian forces and the Russian military space forces, are fighting with the ISIS terrorist organization and the armed opposition groups, which to some extent cooperate with various extremist groups. In the north of the country, Turkey, which is fighting the Kurds, introduced its military group. The United States and its allies confront Russia, Iran and Syria, supporting the opposition and periodically launching missile strikes against Syrian government forces, accusing Damascus of using chemical weapons. Israel also carries out rocket attacks on targets in Syria, citing its national interests.
Will the world
In the world, the military-political situation is already being compared with the situation during the Caribbean crisis. So far, a direct military clash between Russian and American troops has been avoided. The Syrian government, with the assistance of the Russian center for the reconciliation of the warring parties, managed to establish a ceasefire with many armed opposition groups. The fighting is mainly against ISIS units, and Turkish troops, with the support of the Syrian opposition units in the north, are also crowding out militants. Kurdish troops, with the support of Western coalition aviation led by the United States, are advancing on the city of Raku. The territory controlled by ISIS has decreased significantly.
On February 15-16, in Astana (Kazakhstan), another round of talks on peace in Syria was held. Through the mediation of Russia, Iran, Turkey, Jordan, the participation of the United Nations and the United States, representatives of the Syrian government and ten opposition groups discussed issues of maintaining a truce, exchanging prisoners and monitoring the current situation. The parties are still far from the beginning of direct negotiations, but the first step towards peace has been taken. Inter-Syrian negotiations with the opposition are also taking place in Geneva, where the main obstacle was the demand for the immediate departure of Syrian President Bashar Assad. But at the last meeting, the United States tentatively agreed that Assad stayed until the new presidential elections in Syria. There is no breakthrough, but there is hope. Another platform for peace talks is the National Dialogue Congress in Sochi, co-organized by Russia, Turkey and Iran, the main guarantors of a ceasefire in Syria.
East is a delicate matter
The main factor influencing the development of the military-political situation in the world is the strengthening of China as a regional and global player. China is modernizing its armed forces. The United States seeks to maintain its leadership in the region by strengthening military ties with countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Including using the controversial issues of China with Vietnam and the Philippines on the islands in the South China Sea and trying to act as an international arbiter. Under the pretext of protecting against the North Korean nuclear threat last year, the United States began building a THAD missile defense base in South Korea, which China regarded as a threat to its national security. China imposed sanctions against South Korea, forcing it to promise not to deploy a further missile defense system. Japan is building up the power of its armed forces, seeking to increase the role of the army in resolving political issues, and has gained the opportunity to use military force abroad.
Korean way
The main news driver for almost the whole of 2017 was a squabble between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. An advanced Twitter user called Kim a man-rocket, in response he was also showered with unseemly nicknames, and this continued until the New Year. Reasons, of course, were not so funny. In February 2017, the DPRK launched the Kwanmenson rocket with a satellite on board. Given the fourth nuclear test that Pyongyang conducted on January 6, all countries regarded this launch as a test of a ballistic missile. Experts calculated that the flight range of the rocket could be 13 thousand kilometers, that is, it could theoretically reach the United States. In response, the UN announced sanctions by unanimous decision of members of the Security Council, including Russia. During the year, the DPRK made several more launches and announced its ability to equip missiles with nuclear warheads. In response, the United Nations introduced a new package of sanctions, in addition, the United States imposed its economic restrictions, regarding these launches as a threat to national security. Donald Trump said: "These are the toughest sanctions that have ever been imposed against a particular country." Also, the US president announced the possibility of a military solution to the Korean problem and sent his aircraft carriers to the Korean peninsula. Pyongyang in response announced the possibility of a retaliatory nuclear strike. The situation in the world has escalated, the possibility of various military scenarios is seriously discussed by experts. All news reviews about what is happening in the world today began with the situation around the Pyongyang nuclear program.
Olympic reconciliation
Everything changed on the Korean Peninsula after the New Year’s conciliatory speech by the North Korean leader, where he spoke about the possibility of participating in the Olympic Games in South Korea and a dialogue on the current situation. The parties held a series of high-level negotiations. The North Korean team took part in the Olympic Games, the countries exchanged performances by musical groups. This helped to reduce the tension in the military-political situation in the world, everyone understood that there would be no war yet.
The delegation of South Korea, led by the head of the National Security Directorate under President Jong Eun Young, held a series of negotiations with all interested parties. After negotiations with Kim Jong-un, they personally reported the results to US President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinjiro Abe and senior officials of their countries. Based on the results of shuttle diplomacy, an inter-Korean summit and a meeting between the US president and the DPRK leader are being prepared. Michael Pompeo, director of the CIA, future secretary of state, visited Pyongyang on April 18 and held talks with Kim Jong-un.
The rest of the world
Latin America and Africa also contribute to the military-political situation in the world. The main problems of Latin American countries lie more politically and economically: increased competition and the struggle for natural resources, low control over some territories. The issues of combating drug trafficking and criminal armed groups, which sometimes control entire regions of the country, are very acute. In the region, the political situation is affected by controversial territorial issues, which are still trying to solve through negotiations. But the countries of the region are also steadily building up the power of their armed forces. In Africa, the main threat to the stability of the military-political situation in the world is still Libya, where the armed conflict between supporters and opponents of radical Islamization with the participation of local tribes continues. In many other parts of Africa there are extremist groups that smuggle drugs and weapons, illegal migration.
In general, the features of the current military-political situation in the world show a possible increase in the number of regional conflicts and challenges to Russia's national security.