To determine when there will be a default in Russia, it is worth considering the interpretation of this concept. According to the generally accepted wording, a default at the state level represents the inability to pay off internal and external debts as a result of a sharp drop in the national exchange rate or other reasons. Most often, this state of the financial system is present for a long and indefinite period of time.
Our debts are small
To understand when there will be a default in Russia, you need to look at the obligations of our country at the moment. At the end of 2013, the Russian Federation had debts in exchange for the USSR in the amount of 55 billion dollars, the debt to the Paris Club was a little more than 1 billion dollars, the debt to financial institutions of international order was at the level of about one and a half billion. We also pay commercial debt of the Soviet Union, pay debts to the former CMEA countries that were once our creditors.
The situation when there will be a default in Russia means that the country will not be able to pay off these obligations. As much as possible? In addition to the above articles, the state debt of the Russian Federation includes debt relations on foreign loans and state guarantees in foreign currency. The first of which are in total equal to forty billion dollars, and the second - 11.3 billion dollars. The total amount of government debt at the end of 2013 is about 111 billion dollars, with most of this coming from contracts concluded by the USSR.
Everything is in the budget
To find out when the default will take place in Russia, you also need to pay attention to the amount and components of the country's budget for 2014. According to the adopted law, number 349- (dated December 2, 2013), the total amount of this parameter for Russia is 73 310 000 000 000 rubles. At the same time, the budget includes about 97 billion rubles to service current liabilities. Therefore, assumptions about a probable default have no basis.
Is a default expected in Russia in the near future? Experts believe that no, although the share of government debt from GDP in 2014-2016 will fluctuate around 13.7-14.4 percent. According to the state financial policy, in the coming years the volume of external liabilities will decrease, which will reduce the spending of foreign currency for these purposes. In recent years, the
gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia have been holding above $ 500 billion, which creates the prerequisites for timely settlements with international partners.
Default is not expected
Default 2014 in Russia is unlikely, because The country has a calm internal environment, developed and developing industry, well-established foreign economic and political relations, and numerous trade contracts. This has a positive effect on the exchange rate of the Russian currency. The 2014 Olympics are shaping the country's image as a hospitable neighbor. Good energy prices also contribute to replenishing the budget and channeling the funds received to the development of other industries.