Last year, representatives of the domestic media actively discussed the issue of whether South Ossetia would become part of Russia. Today it has not lost its relevance in view of the fact that the leaders of both states are making every effort to sign an agreement on integration and alliance.
Members of "United Ossetia" for joining
The United Ossetia faction gained a majority in the parliamentary elections, and its leader Anatoly Bibilov, answering the question of whether South Ossetia will be part of Russia, said he would like this reunion.
However, earlier the Russian media wrote that Moscow is not very interested in such a political consolidation. Despite this, the head of the leading party was ready, by popular vote, to determine whether South Ossetia would become part of Russia.
First Hearings and Entry Question
After the first parliamentary hearings, Anatoly Bibilov said that the deputies of the legislative body came to the conclusion that the Ossetian people should decide whether to erase the administrative borders between the above states.
Previously, the question of whether South Ossetia would be part of Russia was repeatedly raised by Tskhinvali political scientists, but one of the phrases expressed by Bibilov gave a clear understanding of how the leading party was set up to reunite with the Russian people.
“We firmly follow the declared slogans and we will not allow any double standards in our political intentions. The question of whether South Ossetia will be part of Russia this year will be put to a referendum. At the same time, we should not forget that a consolidated and capable parliament should initiate such a decision, ”the politician said.
Nevertheless, the talk about holding a referendum, where the question of whether South Ossetia will be included in Russia this year, did not cause serious excitement.
In the past, the assistant to the head of the Russian state paid a visit to Tskhinval to discuss with the Ossetian authorities the possibility of building modern real estate in the capital of South Ossetia. At that time, Anatoly Bibilov did not miss the opportunity to say once again that the fate of the question of whether South Ossetia will be part of Russia in the near future will depend on the will of the people.
Public opinion
It should be noted that a certain part of Tskhinval’s political scientists doubted that the decision to destroy the administrative borders between Russia and South Ossetia would be taken by popular vote. The opinion of the inhabitants of North Ossetia plays an important role in the issue of accession, since they, like no one else, are close to the mentality of South Ossetians. In addition, if, for example, the question of whether South Ossetia joins Russia next year is resolved positively, in fact, such an act will not be considered an extension of the borders of the above republic. In reality, there will be a consolidation of the north and south, as a result of which there will be one subject of the Russian Federation - Ossetia.
What the survey showed
It should be noted that the representatives of the public in South Ossetia do not have a single point of view as to whether South Ossetia will become part of Russia. The war with Georgia, it would seem, put all the points over the “and”. One way or another, but statistics is a stubborn thing.
So, will South Ossetia be part of Russia? Who is behind this? It turned out that only 79% of respondents. The same number of residents of South Ossetia support the policy of the head of the United Ossetia faction, Anatoly Bibikov.
It must be emphasized that the inhabitants of North Ossetia also disagree on whether South Ossetians need to reunite with the Russians. Our citizens also gave mixed answers to the above question.
About 12% of respondents said that at the moment it is not advisable for Russia to erase the territorial borders with South Ossetia, since this could entail additional sanctions from the United States and Europe.
It is noteworthy that the vast majority of respondents to the question of whether the sanctions of the West have a negative effect gave a negative answer.
About 8% of the respondents opposed South Ossetia becoming part of Russia, because they have confidence that South Ossetia is an economically weak republic, which could negatively affect the development of several regions of the North Caucasus.
One way or another, but many Ossetians believe that Bibilov’s initiative with a referendum will not be implemented and will remain in the status of a promise. It should be noted that the question of joining South Ossetia to the Russian Federation was already put up for referendum in the 90s of the last century, but it had no political continuation.
It is highly likely that today's referendum will be formal.
The risk of Georgian aggression
For many political scientists, it remains a mystery whether South Ossetia will become part of Russia. The border with Abkhazia has been established for several years, but despite this, many remember the monstrous Georgian aggression. In this regard, South Ossetian officials came up with a proposal to conclude a military alliance with Russia. The head of the apparatus of the presidential administration of South Ossetia, Chochiev commented as follows: “We asked the head of the Russian state to conclude an agreement on military cooperation in order to consolidate the group of forces and strengthen social guarantees in South Ossetia.” The official added that the project will be discussed in the very near future.
“We recommended that international organizations influence Tbilisi, so that the Georgian authorities join the agreement on the non-use of force. Unfortunately, in the course of numerous discussions, the Georgian leadership refused to sign the above treaty, and I am convinced that no one will give us guarantees that aggression by the above state will be excluded. I note that the attack on South Ossetia and Russia in 2008 occurred with the then existing guarantees of the non-use of force, ”said Chochiev.
The threat of annexation
Of course, today many people are concerned about the question of whether South Ossetia will become part of Russia. Abkhazia, Russia have already developed for themselves a “single security circuit”, and it would be reasonable for the RSO to create it for itself. The Abkhaz state has concluded a cooperation agreement with the Russian Federation, which involves strategic partnership and the formation of joint armed forces.
The head of the Russian state Vladimir Putin emphasized that about 5 billion rubles will be allocated this year to Abkhazia, moreover, financing will be carried out annually in the amount of 4 billion rubles.
With this in mind, the issue of whether South Ossetia will be part of Russia should be unambiguously resolved for the authorities of South Ossetia. Abkhazia, Russia are strategic partners, but, unfortunately, not everyone approves of such cooperation. In particular, the representative of the Georgian government Zurab Abashidze condemned the international integration of Abkhazia and Russia, positioning it as a "step towards the annexation of Abkhazia."
Also expected was a reaction from NATO. The aforementioned strategic partnership and cooperation agreement was not recognized by the representatives of the North Atlantic Alliance. The US explains this by saying that the document was concluded in violation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Georgia.
One way or another, but at the present time the question does not lose its relevance: “Will South Ossetia be part of Russia”? Abkhazia has already made its choice, and it is safe to say that it did not lose, but, on the contrary, won.
Will Election Promises Be Fulfilled
It remains unclear to many political scientists why the Ossetians did not immediately follow the path of the Abkhazians and did not conclude a partnership agreement with the Russian Federation. Will South Ossetia become part of Russia? Abkhazia - Russia or not? Will join the Union of South Ossetia? The ambiguity in these issues is partly dictated by the peculiarities of the mentality of the Ossetian people and the unpreparedness of officials for radical changes. As already emphasized, the situation began to change when Anatoly Babilov won the parliamentary elections, and in the pre-election debates he promised to reunite Russia and the South Ossetians.
Military cooperation agreement
In fairness, it should be noted that over eighty cooperation agreements have been signed between the RSO and the Russian Federation. It would seem, where else? One way or another, but there wasn’t enough an official document that would regulate military coordination between the Armed Forces of South Ossetia and the 22nd base. The Russian Defense Ministry has concluded with the leadership of the Republic of South Ossetia a huge number of agreements of an economic orientation: on pensions, on procurement, and on awarding awards and titles. However, there was a gap in the legal field when it came to military cooperation in the event of force majeure.
It should be noted that the Abkhaz authorities hostilely received the news of their intentions to conclude the above treaty: they say that if the Russian general commands the republican army, then an independent state will lose its sovereignty. Residents of South Ossetia, on the contrary, welcomed the signing of an agreement on military cooperation.
The ruling party is active
The head of the United Ossetia party, Anatoly Bibilov, in turn, constantly stated that under favorable conditions the legislative bodies of both states would be able to ratify the agreement in the very near future. He even called an approximate date when this could happen - the first decade of 2015.
Bibilov also added that the signing of a strategic partnership with Russia will enable both countries to break the deadlock into which they were driven by the Geneva accords.
“For several years now, these agreements have existed, but there is practically no effect on them. There are also no concrete steps and no measures are taken to agree a non-aggression agreement, ”the official noted.
The head of the United Ossetia faction did not rule out the possibility that the opposition, represented by the Tbilisi leadership, would obstruct the contracting parties.
“Georgian officials have become completely dependent on US decisions, so the factor of Abkhazia and Crimea in Tbilisi will play an important role. Whether we conclude an agreement with Russia or not, they will still put sticks in the wheels, ”Bibilov emphasized.
For many parliamentarians of South Ossetia, the fundamental question remains whether South Ossetia will become part of Russia or return to independence. Opinions were divided, but a significant part of the deputies supported the integration of Russia and South Ossetia.
“The main national idea of our people is the establishment of partnerships with Russia in the social and military-political sphere, up to the destruction of administrative borders,” said one of the parliamentarians of South Ossetia.
"A sly plan
As noted above, Tbilisi officials interpret in their own way the question of whether South Ossetia will join Russia or return to Georgia. They are categorically against cooperation between Russia and South Ossetia in the military sphere.
“Representatives of Georgian diplomacy are already trying to do everything possible to prevent the creation of the above alliance. On the side of Tbilisi are authoritative international organizations and Western politicians who view the actions of the Kremlin as a form of occupation and annexation, ”media reported.
Paat Zakareishvili, an official in charge of civil equality issues in the Georgian government, gave a negative assessment of the rapprochement between Russia and South Ossetia. He added that the Kremlin is playing a dishonest game with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, since it first recognized the independence of these republics, and today it is trying to take away its once-sovereignty, urging the parties to sign illegal agreements of an international legal nature.
One way or another, opposition forces accuse the Georgian Dream cabinet of ministers of inadequacy and urge him to pursue a tougher policy. The faction of the former head of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili - “Unified National Movement” - approves the introduction of additional sanctions for Russia by the West. In 2008, the European Union did not realize how dangerous the actions of the Russian authorities in relation to neighboring countries are. Today is the turn of Ukraine. However, it is very important that the European community gives guarantees of protection against Russian aggression not only to Ukraine, but also to Georgia. This position was expressed by the representative of the party of nationals Georgy Baramidze.
In addition, Saakashvili’s supporters are calling for termination of all agreements with the Russian Federation.
Kremlin reaction
Last year, representatives of the presidential administration repeatedly stated that both the head of state, Vladimir Putin, and the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov, and the current prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, rejected the idea of erasing administrative borders between Russia and South Ossetia. This decision was also dictated by the fact that Moscow had earlier officially recognized the independence of South Ossetia, and this is precisely the fact that is taken into account primarily in building international relations with the neighboring republic.
The principle of independence also forms the basis for military cooperation, despite the fact that about eighty agreements have already been concluded.
Of course, first of all, interest in the unification of Russia and South Ossetia was felt in Tskhinval itself, and the solution of this issue depended more on the will of the Ossetian people. In fairness, it should be noted that, according to sociologists, the public of South Ossetia feels more protected from external threats when it is under Russian jurisdiction. But in conditions of sovereignty, guarantees of calm seem unsteady to them. In any case, South Ossetians need to strive to create a capable and economically developed state, which is unthinkable without cooperation with the Russian Federation.
Current state of affairs
Most recently, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin addressed a draft law to parliament that would ratify an agreement with South Ossetia on integration and alliance. Only after the deputies approve the normative legal act will it become finally known whether South Ossetia will become part of Russia. According to the documents that the parties plan to sign, Moscow and Tskhinval significantly expand the boundaries of cooperation. First of all, we are talking about a treaty that provides for alliance and integration. Serious emphasis will be placed on that part of the agreement, which spells out provisions for expanding military partnerships.
Of course, one does not have to be seven spans in the forehead to draw a few simple conclusions that arise from such cooperation between the Russian Federation and South Ossetia. First, representatives of the Russian military will become the head of the combined armed forces. Secondly, from the legal point of view, the territorial border of South Ossetia will coincide with the state border of Russia.