Assessing the risk of technical systems and making adequate decisions is an actual daily practice in which the right decision is essential and always determines adequate and objective consequences, which does not always correspond to a reasonably reasonable calculation.
All technical systems that have ever been created, operate on the basis of objective laws, primarily physical, chemical, gravitational, social. The specialist’s qualification level, the level of development of the theory and practice of risk analysis and management are certainly important, but they do not always objectively reflect reality.
Background, theory and price of risk assessment
The variety of technical systems is determined by the multiplicity of types of production activities, differences in industrial facilities, their relevance to the spheres of human life.
Technological risk analysis addresses the likely negative consequences:
- failure in the operation of technical systems,
- failures in technological processes,
- errors of staff.
It makes good sense to consider the negative impact on people and the environment.
Even the trouble-free operation of production facilities (emissions, leakage of harmful substances, untreated effluents, etc.) can lead to the need for risk assessment according to various parameters and consequences.
The human factor in risk assessment
The results of applying the technical system in the context of the expected risk are essential for making informed decisions:
- determination of placement;
- design of production facilities;
- transportation and storage of hazardous substances and materials;
- energy supply (gas, electricity, compressed air);
- and other points.
In the study of risk, formal methods and algorithms find application, taking into account the various situations that managers and workers may encounter.
Uncertainty is a characteristic quality of the application of a technical system. In many cases, decisions of a particular specialist are made, which leaves an imprint on the methodology, course and results of the risk analysis.
The environment for technical systems
Typically, technical systems are created by people. The ideas of nature and the initiatives of aliens usually do not carry such a share of risk and do not require as much attention as the creation of human hands.
The reliability of technical systems and the technological risk of a task are determined by the scope of its application. For example, a house and its engineering structures are always connected with the territory, its features, climate, the influence of other technical systems, human activities, etc.
Natural phenomena affect technical systems not intentionally, but objectively. People may not have the idea that as a result of their “reasonable” actions, this house or its engineering structures may be in an unforeseen situation.
As a result of the construction of a new house, which adds to the load on the engineering structures of the territory, existing technical systems may be affected. As a result of a hurricane, for example, it can tear down the roof or damage the supporting structures.
Houses built by specialists who are accustomed to the features of a particular area can cause significant damage to the territory, which makes special demands on the foundations of structures, in particular.
The operation of the aircraft by experienced pilots on the usual routes will necessarily lead to unforeseen situations when they cross a mountainous area or in flight over territories where the atmosphere is characterized by pressure drops, air flows, etc.
Assessing the risk of technical systems and the environment of their “existence” is a task whose relevance is growing every day. And the complexity of this task is proportional to the speed of creating new technical systems and new options for influencing existing systems.
Emergence and development of technical systems
The normal life of a person and the efficiency of the mechanisms created by him never went beyond the limits of reasonable need and real possibilities.
The horse replaced the car, and the advent of the railroad, ships and aircraft changed the infrastructure for transporting goods and passengers. Every technical system does not stand still, and its functionality and applicability reflects its technical capabilities against the background of the existing environment and other technical systems.
Both the system itself and its functionality only in very rare cases lie in the competence of its creators, much more often the activities of those who operate, repair, modernize, supplement, complete are superimposed on it ...
Real examples of risks in this process of natural development (by their source):
- natural phenomena;
- human factor;
- technical systems;
- socio-economic environment.
They determine the consequences of varying degrees of severity, that is, they form the need to “do something” in order to maintain the required functionality and restore the operability of the technical system that was influenced by a natural phenomenon (flood, landslide, earthquake, ...) that was damaged by the actions people, the impact of another technical system or was without a "livelihood" when the socio-economic situation around has changed dramatically.
There are many options for influencing the current system. Risks arise both in the case when a person does nothing, and when he assesses the state of affairs and takes measures to increase the reliability of technical systems and reduce technological risk.
Progress of systems and development of risk assessment theory
Scientific and technological progress has long led to the fact that a person consciously began to form a scientific foundation in the field of risk analysis and assessment. Scientists have long argued that "The risks and dangers in the development of civilization were, are and will be ... will have to accustom themselves to the idea of the need to live under this burden ... this means only one thing: humanity needs to learn how to minimize this risk and danger."
Typically, risk analysis methods are understood to mean:
- statistics
- feasibility of costs;
- expert opinions;
- analytics
- analogy (use of analogues);
- financial stability;
- impact analysis;
- combined options.
It works, but not always. The current stage of development of social consciousness, the number and complexity of existing technical systems is so great that it is often difficult to talk about the real qualified influence of a person on a particular system that does not cause a new risk or real danger.
Nevertheless, it was the development of a methodology for analyzing and assessing risks, the accumulation of statistical data and actual experimental material during operation that led to the reliability of technical systems and risk assessment becoming indispensable both in creating new systems and developing existing ones.
Self-developing systems in statics
It is often strange to hear that the basic design of an airplane or an ocean liner was created in the last century. But to create a radically new plane or a liner today from scratch is absurd, and at the given time, no qualified specialist would offer anything completely new.
The knowledge of the last century, as well as the theoretical achievements of Archimedes, are fundamentally useful. They build a modern understanding of things and their functionality. This is normal and natural. And it works, providing informed risk management, provides a mathematical apparatus for determining the reliability of a particular system, for assessing the risk of an unforeseen situation and its consequences.
A completely different version of the development of events is provided by systems that become an integral part of human life, in addition, they are continuously improved by a mass of people. So it is difficult to assess risks, perform analysis and predict the development of the Internet, web resources, programs. These technical systems do not work as intended by the author (development team).
Self-developing systems in dynamics
The programming language today is not the application that its creators planned at the time of implementation, the release of new versions. A programmer uses a programming language within his competence and experience. He is least interested in the ideas of the creators of the language.
But the mistake made by the tool developer can harm the system that the programmer created using this tool. Most often, a user of such a system will cause damage, using it differently from what the programmer intended.
These circumstances lead to actions to prevent the negative impact of the system without the participation of its creator, and even more so without the participation of the developer of the tool. In this context, the risk assessment of technical systems takes on a different meaning:
- There is a tool for creating a technical system;
- there is a system created by means of a tool;
- there are many applications of the system in various fields;
- There are many implementations of adapting the functionality of the system;
- there is the problem of choosing the optimal adaptation and its inverse effect on the system and the tool for its creation.
Simply put, the knowledge of some experts, has turned into a technical system, by this it is separated from the creator. This knowledge was put into practice and gained many use cases, which entailed not only new knowledge, but also specific new system implementations. New knowledge was separated from their developers and created a reason for combining them for the purpose of analysis and evaluation for the inverse effect on the system.
System redundancy for increased reliability
Safety and reliability have always been the main terms in the design and use of any system. Moreover, the level and degree of responsibility of the system, as a rule, does not play a special role. A study of the reliability and risk of an unreserved technical system is of greater importance.
An oil refinery and an ordinary water tap are completely different systems, but the study of the safety, reliability and risk of a non-reserved technical system is relevant in both cases.
To reserve a system as a whole or in part of its specific element is not always advisable, and often fundamentally simply impossible.
But reservations can be performed in various ways. Some elements of the systems can simply be changed entirely and this will be an ideal solution. Some systems just need to be replaced with new ones based on the experience of operating previous models, but not necessarily homogeneous.
Systems theory, methodology for assessing and managing risk have never been dogmas since its inception. Being knowledge systems based on the experience, statistics and intuition of specialists, they represent a dynamic potential that is applied individually in each situation.