It is well known that significant attention when discussing issues about banks and banking activities, the main attention is paid to the study of individual financial institutions, which in the course of their activities not only faced the problem of insufficient solvency, liquidity and stability, incorrectly assessed risks in banking activities and were subsequently declared bankrupt . It often turns out that these organizations were poorly managed, sometimes facts of financial fraud were revealed. An analysis of such situations in retrospect made it possible to establish flaws in the system of control and adjustment of banking activities.
The purpose of this reasoning is not to investigate all types of banking activities or to identify the causes of insolvency or bankruptcy of a particular commercial bank, primarily because there are no two absolutely identical internal and external situations and factors affecting the state of the bank that could be used to compare a bank with problems with an existing bank being analyzed. And even in the case of such an analysis, its results will be sufficiently uncertain, since this will be just a forecast. In addition, when speaking about banks and banking activities, it should be borne in mind that all commercial banks operate in constantly changing economic conditions, which it is not only impossible to predict with a sufficient degree of probability, but also the same factors can have different effects on that or another bank. Internal factors, the most important of which are the bank’s management system, its potential, ability to properly use available financial resources and anticipate the consequences of decisions and operations, are also different for each particular bank.
Despite the above functioning features, it is still possible, speaking of banks and banking activities, to establish signs of banks recognized as bankrupt and later liquidated, which will be based primarily on a quantitative coefficient analysis of the financial statements of the institutions in question. The goal is to justify the existence of a stable causal relationship between changes in the macroeconomic environment, the state of banks and the banking system, and assess the impact of the fact of the closure of commercial banks on the state of such an environment. Moreover, to assess this impact, we will determine the annual probability indicator of default of commercial banks by the method of moments, as a result of which a discrete series of annual indicators will be obtained. Comparing them with macroeconomic indicators will allow us to establish and confirm the existence of such a relationship. It should be borne in mind that this indicator is exclusively abstract in nature and is used only for further comparison of changes in the state of the system of commercial banks with selected macroeconomic indicators. Speaking specifically about banks and banking activities, it can be argued that this indicator illustrates how, in a particular calendar year, the probability of default of operating commercial banks changes, all other things being equal (both internal and external) solely depending on the number of banks being liquidated.
It should be noted that the method of moments is widely used in modeling and studying the correlation of existing defaults with the nominal value of assets in international practice when assessing the probability of default of an asset portfolio and is called the asset-value approach.
In addition to the moment method, the maximum likelihood approach can also be used to achieve similar results.