An enterprise in the construction industry is a complex production and economic system characterized by a combination of properties inextricably linked with its internal features. These include: reliability, elasticity, mobility, adaptability, stability, competitiveness, innovative susceptibility, investment activity, which reflects the dynamics of investment activity, the scale, focus and effectiveness of its investment, the investment attractiveness of the enterprise as a whole.
In modern conditions, determined by high competition in the industry and the saturation of the traditional type of market with products (services), those construction companies that have a fairly high market value, the growth of which cannot be achieved without attracting additional investment resources to replenish fixed assets and working capital, to take measures, benefit to increase the competitiveness of products, enterprise development and investment attractiveness.
Improving the investment attractiveness of the enterprise involves the management of investment activity, which, obviously, is the most important parameter for the development of a construction company.
In the system of investment activity management functions, particular importance is attached to planning, which allows, based on forecast data, to determine the strategic objectives of the investment activity of a business entity , methods and means of achieving them. Strategic investment attractiveness of the enterprise aims to increase investment activity and maintain its optimal level.
The limits of investment activity planning are established in the process of forecasting it, the result of which are the quantitative forecast values of the investment activity index (structural indicators) for the future, a critical level of investment activity of a construction company, the achievement of which leads to qualitative changes in its market value. Given that the investment attractiveness of the enterprise requires a balanced forecast, the complexity of the forecasting process and the requirements for the quality of the results, it seems possible to evaluate the forecast values of investment activity indicators using several methods.
Taking into account a number of factors: the specificity of the forecasting object (investment attractiveness of the enterprise, its activity and its structural indicators), the availability of statistical information about the studied object, the medium term lead time, it is advisable to use extrapolation methods in the process of forecasting the investment activity of a construction enterprise. A reasonable prerequisite for the application of these methods is a certain degree of inertia in the dynamics of investment activity of construction enterprises in the short and medium term.
The extrapolation methods are based on a retrospection, during which a model of the dynamics of the forecasting object is formed: the investment activity index of the construction enterprise, its structural indicators and the propagation of future trends in the indicators in the retrospective period.
The studies showed that to determine the predicted values of the activity indicators of the enterprise in the construction industry, the following methods are promising:
• analytical alignment;
• simple exponential smoothing;
• exponential smoothing of Holt-Winters;
• Brown exponential smoothing.
All these methods are based on the idea of what the investment attractiveness of the enterprise is and the dependence of the levels of the dynamic range of indicators of its investment activity on time factors.